Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.96-1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put CMG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 49% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskChipotle must continue growing to justify its current price. Recent results show steady performance, with revenue growth of 9% year over year. The company raised its fiscal 2026 comparable-sales growth forecast to low-single digits. It trades at 33× P/E, which is double the peer median of 17×. The market expects more growth than the company forecasts, indicating full expectations. If Chipotle cuts guidance or faces rising inflation, that could hurt growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. CMG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 34 analysts currently covering CMG (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CMG in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare CMG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put CMG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
New restaurant in Asia supports growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $36.96
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $36.96.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
Entering new markets supports growth objective of new restaurants.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
Opening in Asia supports growth objective for new restaurants.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
Opening new restaurants supports growth objectives.
Advances: Execute 'Recipe for Growth' strategy focusing on menu innovation and digital
New product aligns with menu innovation strategy.
Downgrade indicates potential headwinds for growth objectives.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
New outlet supports growth objective of opening new restaurants.
Advances: Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026
New market entry supports growth objective of opening new restaurants.
