CMG
Chipotle Mexican GrillNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CMG has a composite score of 8.1 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 73.1 and elevated risk, with strengths in macro factors (17.9) and quality (69.6), but weaknesses in momentum (-16.7) and valuation (45.2). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.32 (-3.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 25 cut, 34 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Open new restaurantsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/29: “Management anticipates 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including international locations.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026, including international locations. Revenue decreased from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in growth trajectory.
- 2.Maintain flat comparable salesgrowthbehind0% progress
4/29: “Management anticipates full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management aims for flat comparable sales, but revenue fell from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in maintaining sales levels.
- 3.Execute core strategiesotherwatchprovisional
1/12: “Focus remains on the disciplined execution of our core strategies.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management emphasizes disciplined execution of core strategies. However, with revenue declining from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, the impact of these strategies remains unclear.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 30%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −49%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 35/100, drawdown 2/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Open new restaurants
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Expand by opening 350 to 370 new restaurants, including international locations.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026, including international locations. Revenue decreased from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in growth trajectory.
0%CEO/CFO:“Management anticipates 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including international locations.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including 10 to 15 international.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including international.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings.”
- #2
Maintain flat comparable sales
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to keep full-year comparable restaurant sales about flat.
BehindStated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management aims for flat comparable sales, but revenue fell from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in maintaining sales levels.
0%CEO/CFO:“Management anticipates full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range.”
- #3
Execute core strategies
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Focus on disciplined execution of core strategies to drive performance.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Management emphasizes disciplined execution of core strategies. However, with revenue declining from $3.06B in 2025-Q2 to $2.54B in 2025-Q4, the impact of these strategies remains unclear.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Focus remains on the disciplined execution of our core strategies.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Focus remains on the disciplined execution of our core strategies.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | +8.1 | full | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for our fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and that management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 pm Eastern time on April 29, 2026.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, we issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for our fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and that management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 pm Eastern time on February 3, 2026.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-123mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 12, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (“Chipotle”) announced that, after several years of dedicated service with the company, Messrs. Chris Brandt and Roger Theodoredis have transitioned out of their current positions as executive officers effective January 12, 2026. To facilitate an orderly succession, Messrs. Brandt and Theodoredis ha…
executive changeneutralscore 4 - 2025-11-255mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (“Chipotle”) elected Josh Weinstein to its Board of Directors, effective November 25, 2025. The Board also appointed Mr. Weinstein to the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board. Josh Weinstein, age 51, has served as Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board of Directo…
executive changeneutralscore 2 - 2025-12-085mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (“Chipotle”) today announced that its Board of Directors, on December 4, 2025, had authorized an additional $1.8 billion for share repurchases. Historically, Chipotle’s Board has authorized additional share repurchase pools on a quarterly basis; however, beginning with this authorization, the Board intends to authorize share repurchase pools with a larger dollar amount to cover multiple quarters. Including this additional authorization, a…
capital allocationpositivescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.