Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.96-1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 49.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
CMG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for our fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and that management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 pm Eastern time on April 29, 2026.
Why it matters: Chipotle aims for steady sales in 2026. Stability is important for keeping revenue.
Watch forRestaurant sales growth is over 1% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forComparable restaurant sales growth drops below 0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Opening 350 to 370 new restaurants could significantly boost revenue. This is key for growth amid a competitive market.
Supportive ifRevenue goes up a lot due to new restaurant openings, growing over 7%.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below 5%. This shows new openings are not boosting sales as expected.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show how management is returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifThere will be more share buybacks beyond the current $1.3 billion plan.
Worry ifNo new announcements or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Flat sales show steady customer demand. This will show if Chipotle can keep its market share.
Watch forComparable restaurant sales growth reported at 0% or better for the full year 2026.
Also watch forRestaurant sales drop each year, showing demand is getting weaker.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $383 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,347 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is needed for the 50-for-1 stock split to happen. This could make shares more accessible to investors.
Supportive ifShareholders agree to change the rules. This allows more shares for the split.
Worry ifShareholders do not agree to the change. This stops the stock split from happening.
Why it matters: Digital sales are key for Chipotle's growth. An increase shows they are adapting well to trends.
Supportive ifDigital sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifDigital sales growth is under 5% year over year. This suggests a possible problem with online sales.
Why it matters: New restaurant openings are key to Chipotle's growth. Meeting this target shows strong execution of their expansion strategy.
Supportive ifChipotle opens between 350 to 370 new restaurants by year-end 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 350 new restaurants opened by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Inflation can hurt profits. If costs go up a lot, growth may slow.
Worry ifFood costs as a percentage of revenue remain below 30%.
Less concerning ifFood costs exceed 31% of total revenue.
Why it matters: This will show if the recent sales momentum continues or if it fades. A decline could signal trouble in the growth strategy.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant sales growth is below 2.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 restaurant sales growth is above 2.2%.
Why it matters: More digital sales show that the company is adapting to what customers want.
Supportive ifDigital sales are above 38.3% of total food and beverage revenue.
Worry ifDigital sales are below 38.3% of total food and beverage revenue.
Why it matters: This reflects the company's growth strategy. Meeting this target shows strong execution.
Supportive ifManagement plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants by year-end.
Worry ifThe number of new restaurant openings falls below 350.
Why it matters: A slowdown may mean changes in spending or the company's financial health.
Worry ifManagement is still buying back shares. They are doing it at the same or higher levels.
Less concerning ifShare repurchase activity drops a lot from previous quarters.