Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$34.35+1.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.35. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $37–$45. Note: our $31 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($37–$45). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $41 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$37.00 – $45.00 (median $40.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 105% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 10.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.96/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $40.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $33.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $33.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $6.80 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $22.02 | 12.6 | 1.75 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $21.27 | 18.4 | 1.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $22.27 | 20.1 | 1.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $8.88 | 1.0 | 9.32 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $65.04 | 58.6 | 1.11 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $5.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $41.39 | 37.3 | 1.11 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $22.89 | 20.1 | 1.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $32.30 | 18.4 | 1.76 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $32.59 | 20.1 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $12.61 | 1.0 | 13.23 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $95.15 | 58.6 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $60.55 | 37.3 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $42.67 | 18.4 | 2.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $40.95 | 20.1 | 2.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $15.84 | 1.0 | 16.63 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $119.56 | 58.6 | 2.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $76.09 | 37.3 | 2.04 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.