Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.40+0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.37 → 1.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain flat comparable restaurant sales in 2026 | A primary condition in Chipotle Mexican Grill's published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY growth. | Intact | comparable restaurant sales growth falls below -2% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant growth business, with expansion, comparable sales, and digital innovation as central drivers. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the latest signal has shifted to mixed and company momentum has weakened.
The evidence labels the valuation stretched and expensive, with a premium versus peers and a low-confidence estimate of the expectations gap. That suggests expectations already reflect a strong growth case, leaving less room for execution to disappoint without challenging the thesis.
Near term, recent results show sales growth, positive transactions for a third consecutive quarter, and more digital sales, alongside lower operating margin and a recent earnings miss. Management continues to prioritize sales growth and expansion, but delivery is mixed on footprint growth and innovation, and the supplied evidence flags a run of recent earnings misses.
The multi-year view hinges on whether sales and transactions keep growing while operating margins stabilize, and whether restaurant openings translate into durable business growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CMG has a still-intact growth thesis, but expensive valuation, weaker momentum, and execution risks make the setup mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is strong in digital and menu innovation. |
| Improving |
| digital and menu innovation efforts stall or reverse |
Qualitative: Rewards overhaul & new menu items driving sales growth News confirms rewards overhaul is working and new menu items are driving sales growth, supporting the innovation thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels | Profit margins remain stable with steady earnings. | Improving | profit margins fall more than 200 basis points below recent levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026 | Chipotle plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026. | Intact | new restaurant openings fall below 300 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.35 → $1.33 · observed estimates
$14.39B → $14.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.35 | $14,385,054,480 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.35 | $14,387,966,240 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.35 | $14,387,966,240 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.35 | $14,387,966,240 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.35 | $14,387,966,240 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.35 | $14,391,340,762 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.35 | $14,387,966,240 | 35 / 34 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.37 | $14,415,700,480 | 33 / 32 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.37 | $14,417,342,611 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.37 | $14,418,791,370 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.37 | $14,418,956,730 | 34 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.37 | $14,418,956,730 | 34 / 32 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.37 | $14,420,621,924 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.37 | $14,427,389,203 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.37 | $14,427,389,203 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.37 | $14,427,389,203 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.37 | $14,427,389,203 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.37 | $14,427,389,203 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.37 | $14,426,406,046 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.37 | $14,432,967,507 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.37 | $14,427,466,459 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.37 | $14,434,759,528 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.37 | $14,434,759,528 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.37 | $14,434,759,528 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.37 | $14,434,759,528 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.37 | $14,434,759,528 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.37 | $14,434,854,355 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.37 | $14,441,491,592 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.37 | $14,441,491,592 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.37 | $14,441,491,592 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.37 | $14,441,491,491 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.37 | $14,442,656,745 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.37 | $14,442,795,455 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.37 | $14,437,865,777 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.37 | $14,437,865,777 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.37 | $14,440,187,196 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.37 | $14,440,187,196 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.37 | $14,439,028,966 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.37 | $14,445,611,077 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.37 | $14,431,467,787 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.37 | $14,429,774,654 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.37 | $14,424,501,976 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.37 | $14,424,501,976 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.37 | $14,424,501,976 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.37 | $14,424,501,976 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.37 | $14,424,501,976 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.37 | $14,423,942,601 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.33 | $14,391,986,891 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.33 | $14,387,463,515 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.33 | $14,387,463,515 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.33 | $14,387,463,515 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.33 | $14,387,463,515 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.33 | $14,387,463,515 | 22 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 21 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 8 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.