Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.96-1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Chipotle plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026. Sales grew 7.4% in Q1 2026. Profit margins remain stable with steady earnings. The company is strong in digital and menu innovation.
Sales growth may slow below 7%. New restaurant openings could miss targets. Rising costs might reduce profit margins.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $32. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth, which we see as justified but not overly optimistic.
Breaks if: comparable restaurant sales growth falls below -2% in 2026
Chipotle aims to maintain flat comparable restaurant sales for the full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through restaurant expansion and menu innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance and management's commitment to growth strategies.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a significant expectations gap. The market seems to be pricing in continued growth, but this may not fully account for potential headwinds in the sector.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued improvement in comparable sales, as management is on track with its growth initiatives. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential external pressures, such as inflation and sector performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its expansion plans and the performance of key sector peers. Any negative guidance or economic shifts could impact the outlook significantly.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Chipotle raised its fiscal 2026 comparable-sales growth forecast. It now expects low-single-digit growth instead of flat sales. The company beat earnings expectations with a 2.2% rise in comparable sales. Restaurant-level operating margin fell to 25.2% due to higher costs. The recent earnings beat supports the growth strategy. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: digital and menu innovation efforts stall or reverse
Breaks if: profit margins fall more than 200 basis points below recent levels
Breaks if: new restaurant openings fall below 300 in 2026
Continue aggressive restaurant expansion with 350 to 370 new openings including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants, with around 80% having a Chipotlane.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently anticipates 350 to 370 new restaurant openings in 2026, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants, with about 80% having a Chipotlane. This reflects a steady continuation of the aggressive expansion strategy seen since 2025. The trajectory is delivering on the stated expansion plan.
“For 2026, management is anticipating 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
“For 2026, management is anticipating 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
“For 2026, management is anticipating 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
“For 2026, management is anticipating 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
“For 2026, management is anticipating 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CMG's performance will depend on its growth execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.