Cummins (CMI)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-08
$669.11+1.36%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $669.11. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $660 CMI trades at 32× p/e — 1.4× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $482 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $700–$901. Note: our $482 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($700–$901). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $728 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$700.00 – $901.00 (median $770.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 155% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $19.25/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $770.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $596.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $601.26 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $97.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $210.49 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $630.31 | 17.6 | 37.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $393.46 | 20.4 | 19.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $465.45 | 22.8 | 20.44 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $215.24 | 0.9 | 244.19 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $420.38 | 20.6 | 20.44 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $133.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $502.50 | 24.6 | 20.44 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $472.11 | 22.8 | 20.73 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $598.40 | 20.4 | 29.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $736.85 | 22.8 | 32.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $254.91 | 0.9 | 289.20 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $665.51 | 20.6 | 32.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $795.50 | 24.6 | 32.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $791.38 | 20.4 | 38.71 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $738.62 | 22.8 | 32.44 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $255.52 | 0.9 | 289.89 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $667.11 | 20.6 | 32.44 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $797.41 | 24.6 | 32.44 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.