Cummins (CMI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$560.75+2.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026 , Cummins Inc. (“Cummins,” “the Company,” “the registrant,” “we,” “our,” or “us”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Lower charges mean better performance. This shows good management of the segment.
Supportive ifCharges for the Accelera segment are under $200 million in Q2.
Worry ifCharges for the Accelera segment are over $200 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong results here help overall growth and show demand for data center uses.
Supportive ifPower Systems segment revenue growth of 15% or more year over year.
Worry ifPower Systems segment revenue growth below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Consistent returns show good capital use. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifReturn of at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders in Q3.
Worry ifReturn of less than 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders in Q3.
Why it matters: Signs of recovery would help Cummins grow. It would also support management's positive view.
Watch forNorth American truck sales increased from last month.
Also watch forNorth American truck sales keep going down month-over-month.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,503 loss on $10,000 · 25.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High demand helps Cummins grow its revenue and profits. It shows their products work well.
Supportive ifData center power generation revenue grew by 15% or more from last year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifData center power generation revenue grew less than 5% from last year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm strong demand and support the raised full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 10% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A better result means better cost management. It also supports the higher EBITDA margin.
Supportive ifQ3 EBITDA margin above 17.5%.
Worry ifQ3 EBITDA margin below 17.5%.