Cummins (CMI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$448.58-4.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
CMI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026 , Cummins Inc. (“Cummins,” “the Company,” “the registrant,” “we,” “our,” or “us”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Power Systems sales grew 19% in Q2, led by data center power demand. A slowdown could weaken a key growth driver.
Watch forQ3 Power Systems sales grow at least 15% year over year, with data center demand cited as a driver.
Also watch forQ3 Power Systems sales grow less than 10% year over year, or decline.
Why it matters: Cummins raised its 2026 revenue outlook as demand strengthened. Q3 results will test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is up at least 10% year over year, and management keeps its full-year growth outlook at 10%–13% or raises it.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 10%, or management cuts the full-year outlook below 10%.
Why it matters: The report will show whether revenue and margin gains continued after the Q2 outlook increase.
Watch forThe November 5 report shows revenue growth of at least 10% and an EBITDA margin above 17.5%.
Also watch forThe November 5 report shows revenue growth below 10% or an EBITDA margin at or below 17.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,515 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.