Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cummins (CMI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$448.58-4.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
34.59 → 34.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain market share amid competition and geopolitical risks | A supporting condition in Cummins's published investment case. The stated target is stable or growing market share. | Intact | significant market share loss or export revenue decline | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CMI is an established industrial business with a growth-and-margin execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent guidance and earnings outcomes leave execution quality under watch.
Valuation is above peers, while the evidence characterizes expectations as justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the valuation picture is not clear-cut.
Near term, 2026 revenue guidance has risen to 10% to 13%, supported by second-quarter revenue growth of 9% year over year. Margin delivery is less settled: second-quarter EBITDA margin was slightly below the guidance midpoint, while management expects improvement in the second half. Accelera continues to incur EBITDA losses, and recent earnings misses and an industrial-sector headwind add risk.
The multi-year view depends on CMI delivering its higher revenue and margin guidance without reversing course, which could damage management credibility. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from industrial peers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CMI’s thesis rests on sustained growth, improved margins, and progress in limiting Accelera losses. Recent performance keeps the thesis intact, but sector weakness and execution setbacks remain meaningful risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins are expected to improve with gross margin guidance raised to as high as 18.5%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 17.75% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 26.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross margin up to 18.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202626.065348 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026 | A primary condition in Cummins's published investment case. The stated target is 8% to 11% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 9.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 8% to 11% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20269.418026 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• In May, Cummins hosted its 2026 Analyst Day and raised its 2030 financial targets, reflecting the strength of its strategy, stronger market positions and rising demand across key markets.” “The company also announced disciplined capacity and product investments to further strengthen its position in mining and power generation, building on areas where Cummins is already well positioned to deliver long-term growth.” Revenue was $9.457 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$32.29 → $34.58 · observed estimates
$40.13B → $41.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $32.29 | $40,133,626,090 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $32.29 | $40,133,626,090 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $32.29 | $40,133,626,090 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $32.29 | $40,133,626,090 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $32.29 | $40,133,626,090 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $34.20 | $40,325,117,871 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $32.29 | $40,144,014,190 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $32.29 | $40,144,014,190 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $34.20 | $40,325,117,871 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $34.20 | $40,325,117,871 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $32.29 | $40,144,014,190 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $32.29 | $40,144,014,190 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $32.33 | $40,192,984,020 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $32.29 | $40,144,014,190 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $33.89 | $40,884,859,840 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $33.89 | $40,884,859,840 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $34.57 | $40,991,771,283 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $34.66 | $41,006,473,549 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $34.66 | $41,006,473,549 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $34.54 | $40,979,857,458 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $34.54 | $40,979,857,458 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $34.54 | $40,979,857,458 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $34.54 | $40,979,857,458 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $34.55 | $40,979,886,870 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $34.55 | $40,979,886,870 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $34.55 | $40,979,886,870 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $34.55 | $40,979,882,887 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $34.55 | $40,979,882,887 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $34.55 | $40,979,882,887 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $34.54 | $40,979,886,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $34.60 | $41,083,765,240 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $34.60 | $41,083,765,240 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $34.64 | $41,096,383,666 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $34.59 | $41,139,352,315 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $34.59 | $41,139,352,315 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $34.59 | $41,139,568,981 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $34.58 | $41,177,056,808 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $34.58 | $41,177,056,808 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $34.58 | $41,177,056,808 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $34.58 | $41,177,056,808 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $34.58 | $41,177,056,808 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $34.59 | $41,183,382,661 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $34.66 | $41,251,385,806 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $34.66 | $41,251,385,806 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $34.66 | $41,251,385,806 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $34.58 | $41,251,385,806 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $34.58 | $41,251,385,806 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $34.58 | $41,251,386,422 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $34.58 | $41,295,441,359 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.