Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.71-2.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.70 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $212M and $236M in 2026 | Compass Minerals keeps adjusted EBITDA near $212M-$236M in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $212M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 23, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CMP is an operational-improvement story with exposure to a Materials sector tailwind, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while earnings remain loss-making and risk is elevated.
CMP trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to a meaningful gap between current expectations and the model’s assessment. The priced-in signal is tagged unjustified, though no fragility gates fired; this suggests expectations may be hard to support without continued execution.
Near term, management’s 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance has risen, first-half results are tracking toward it, and capital spending remains within its stated range. Plant Nutrition improved, but Salt operating income declined due to higher costs, so operational progress is mixed; smaller size and erratic earnings surprises remain risks.
The multi-year view depends on whether improvements in Plant Nutrition continue and Salt costs are managed while CMP delivers its 2026 guidance. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from Materials bellwethers could sustain sector support; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CMP has an intact but execution-sensitive long-term thesis, with sector support offset by losses, elevated risk, and a premium valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Efficiency gains may improve profits. |
| Intact |
| No margin improvement or margin decline over next 4 quarters |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful ramp of new lithium extraction facility | The company is expanding with a new lithium facility, supporting growth. | Improving | Facility delays or fails to contribute to growth by FY27 | Facility announced May 2026; no operational delay reported May 2026 announcement of Utah lithium facility strongly reinforces growth potential. No negative updates on timeline. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $1.02B in 2025 | A primary condition in Compass Minerals International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.02B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1B in FY25 | Revenue: $215.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.02B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026215,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.70 → $1.70 · observed estimates
$1.39B → $1.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.70 | $1,388,966,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.70 | $1,388,968,433 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.