Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.32+0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMP — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Chief Operations Officer — Patrick Merrin: Patrick Merrin ceased to serve as Chief Operations Officer, and Brandon Risner was appointed as the new Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: A low management score shows problems in leadership and strategy. This can hurt company performance.
Worry ifManagement score is below 40.0. This shows deeper concerns.
Less concerning ifManagement score is above 44.5. This shows better leadership.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is important. It helps improve financial health and leverage ratios.
Supportive ifTotal debt goes down from $716.6 million, which improves leverage ratios.
Worry ifTotal debt goes up or does not drop much.
Why it matters: Sales volumes show how strong the Salt business is and the health of revenue.
Worry ifSalt segment sales volumes fall below 10,350 thousand tons.
Less concerning ifSalt segment sales volumes exceed 10,800 thousand tons.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations impacts debt reduction and capital spending. Weak cash flow can limit growth.
Worry ifNet cash from operations drops a lot compared to earlier periods.
Less concerning ifNet cash from operating activities goes up or stays steady year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $421 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,710 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Redeeming notes will help the balance sheet and lower debt.
Supportive ifManagement says they will pay back the remaining Senior Notes due in 2027.
Worry ifNo progress is reported on redeeming the Senior Notes.
Why it matters: Improvements in Salt operations are key for making money. Slow progress can hurt profits.
Worry ifManagement says Salt operations are improving. This leads to better profit margins.
Less concerning ifHigh production costs and low efficiency continue in the Salt segment.
Why it matters: A rise in sales volumes would show strong demand and success in Plant Nutrition.
Supportive ifPlant Nutrition sales volumes increase by more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifPlant Nutrition sales volumes decline year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the materials sector may mean a recovery for Compass.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows the company can manage costs and grow earnings. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA reported within the $212M-$236M range.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA falls below $212M.
Why it matters: Lower production costs in Salt may show better efficiency and higher profits.
Supportive ifProduction costs in the Salt segment decrease by more than 5% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifProduction costs in the Salt segment remain flat or increase quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows good management and high demand for products.
Supportive ifPlant Nutrition revenue grows above $190 million.
Worry ifPlant Nutrition revenue falls below $170 million.
Why it matters: A big drop would show cost problems. This would hurt overall profits.
Worry ifSalt segment operating income drops more than 25% compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifSalt segment income drops less than 25% or gets better each year.
Why it matters: Good results in this area could help offset problems in Salt. This supports overall guidance.
Supportive ifPlant Nutrition Adjusted EBITDA is more than $15 million for Q3.
Worry ifPlant Nutrition Adjusted EBITDA is less than $15 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Less net debt shows good debt management. This would help financial stability.
Supportive ifNet debt falls below $650 million.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $650 million or increases.
Why it matters: An upgrade or stable rating would reflect financial health and could lower borrowing costs.
Supportive ifS&P maintains or upgrades the company’s credit rating from 'B+' or higher.
Worry ifS&P downgrades the company’s credit rating below 'B+'.