Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CNA FINANCIAL CORP (CNA)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.12+0.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.78 → 4.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share near $2.48 | The company keeps paying stable dividends, $2.48 per share in Q1 2026. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $2.40 | Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.48 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CNA is a mature insurer with robust earnings quality and stable management, rather than a high-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact but in a watch state, with confidence at medium after recent performance lagged its industry cohort.
The evidence describes CNA as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline and no signs of concentrated fragility. That valuation leaves room for a gap between current expectations and fundamentals, but recent results have been mixed.
Near term, investment income and property and casualty premiums are tracking management’s stated priorities, while recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings surprises have trended down after two misses and a later beat, so guidance and execution remain important watch points.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in investment income and disciplined expansion of property and casualty business. Near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates could weigh on the business; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNA’s low relative valuation and steady execution priorities are balanced by uneven recent results and sensitivity to rates and guidance. The thesis remains watchful rather than freshly broken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Board of Directors declares regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.48 per share.” “• Board of Directors declares regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.48 per share.”
Income from fixed income and other investments reaches $2.3 billion | CNA aims to grow income from investments to $2.3 billion in 2026. | Intact | income falls below $2,200 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Net investment income of $635 million, reflects a $23 million decrease from limited partnerships and common stock to $48 million and a $20 million increase from fixed income securities and other investments to $587 million.” “• Net investment income of $701 million, reflects a $31 million increase from limited partnerships and common stock to $131 million and an $8 million increase from fixed income securities and other investments to $570 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain price-to-earnings ratio below peer median of 15.34 | Its stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.98, below peers. | Intact | PE rises above 16 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 12.22x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202612.2188 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.80 → $4.68 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $14.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.80 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.78 | $14,330,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.78 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.68 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.68 | $14,430,000,000 | 1 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.