Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CNH Industrial (CNH)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.25-3.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.67 → 0.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations to improve | Cash flow and profit margins must improve to sustain the turnaround. | Under Pressure | cash flow remains below $200 million | Cash from operations: $145M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $500 million cash from operations. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026145,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CNH is an industrial company with a cyclical business, meaning results are exposed to swings in sector demand. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: momentum and the latest signal improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
CNH is valued at a 29% premium to peers, which points to an expensive valuation. The expectations gap is negative, while the evidence describes priced-in fragility as low and the valuation as justified; this suggests the premium is not paired with a high fragility reading, though confidence is medium.
Near term, management’s steady cost and production discipline may support operations, but recent results are mixed and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down. Management has reaffirmed cautious 2026 guidance, with agriculture sales expected to be about flat and construction sales expected to grow, while industrial margins remain modest. A guidance cut or weakening sector conditions would add pressure to the business outlook.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether cost discipline can sustain margins while agriculture demand remains flat and construction grows. Near term, a guidance cut is a meaningful risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as CAT, DE, and OSK would support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNH presents a cyclical, execution-led thesis with improving momentum but only moderate confidence, an expensive valuation, and a sector headwind. The key evidence to watch is delivery against cautious guidance and the direction of industry conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $0.35 and $0.45. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $0.30 |
Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $0.35 and $0.45. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income | A primary condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is >= $100 million operating income. | Under Pressure | operating income stays below $50 million | Operating income: $656M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million operating income. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026656,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to stabilize or improve | A primary condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.0 billion annual revenue. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $4.8 billion | Revenue: $4.803B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.0 billion annual revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 20264,803,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.73 → $0.68 · observed estimates
$19.02B → $18.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.73 | $19,021,953,730 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.73 | $19,011,064,850 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.73 | $19,011,064,850 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.73 | $19,011,064,850 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.73 | $19,011,064,850 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.70 | $19,020,506,671 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.70 | $19,020,506,671 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.70 | $19,020,506,671 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.70 | $19,020,506,671 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.73 | $19,011,064,850 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.70 | $19,020,506,671 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.68 | $19,202,872,342 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.71 | $19,167,624,820 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.71 | $19,167,624,820 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.71 | $19,167,791,490 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.71 | $19,167,791,490 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.71 | $19,169,563,820 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.70 | $19,169,563,820 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.70 | $19,169,563,820 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.67 | $19,203,072,342 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.65 | $18,868,152,220 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.65 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.66 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.66 | $18,868,124,947 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.66 | $18,895,447,868 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.66 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.67 | $18,895,439,535 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.67 | $18,895,431,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.67 | $18,895,431,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.67 | $18,902,531,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.67 | $18,902,531,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.67 | $18,902,531,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.67 | $18,902,531,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.67 | $18,902,531,760 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.68 | $18,921,032,176 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.68 | $18,931,948,843 | 13 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.