CNH Industrial (CNH)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.40+4.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNH — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chief Technology Officer, Agriculture Chief Commercial Officer — Jay Schroeder, Stefano Pampalone: Two senior executives are retiring and being succeeded by internal promotions.
Why it matters: Changes in demand will affect CNH's revenue and profits in agriculture.
Worry ifNorth American farm equipment demand is showing signs of recovery. It is rising from low levels.
Less concerning ifNorth American farm equipment demand keeps going down. This hurts CNH's sales outlook.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CNH can maintain its financial outlook amid tough market conditions.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, the adjusted EBIT margin is over 5.5%. This shows better cost management.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, the adjusted EBIT margin is below 4.5%. This shows ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: A margin under 1.8% shows ongoing problems with costs and pricing.
Worry ifConstruction segment EBIT margin drops below 1.8% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifConstruction segment adjusted EBIT margin stays at or above 1.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The EBIT margin shows how profitable a company is. A rise means better cost control.
Supportive ifThe EBIT margin for the Agriculture segment is over 4.5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe EBIT margin for the Agriculture segment is below 4.5% in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,475 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for CNH's ability to invest and manage debt.
Watch forFree cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $350 million.
Also watch forFree cash flow for Q2 2026 falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: If sales drop more than 5%, it shows bad conditions in agriculture. This will hurt overall performance.
Worry ifAgriculture segment net sales down more than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAgriculture segment net sales stay the same or grow year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow below $200 million shows cash problems in a tough market.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow of Industrial Activities is below $200 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow of Industrial Activities exceeds $200 million in Q3 2026.