CNH Industrial (CNH)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.25-3.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CNH — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chief Technology Officer, Agriculture Chief Commercial Officer — Jay Schroeder, Stefano Pampalone: Two senior executives are retiring and being succeeded by internal promotions.
Why it matters: More finance loans were past due in Q2 than a year earlier. A further rise could show that farmer stress is spreading.
Worry ifCNH reports more than 4.4% of finance receivables over 30 days past due in Q3.
Less concerning ifCNH reports 4.4% or less of finance receivables over 30 days past due in Q3.
Why it matters: CNH raised its outlook range in August. The next report will test whether it can meet that higher bar.
Watch forOn November 9, CNH keeps its 2026 outlook at or above $0.41-$0.46 adjusted EPS and $200-$400 million free cash flow.
Also watch forOn November 9, CNH cuts its 2026 outlook below $0.41 adjusted EPS or below $200 million free cash flow.
Why it matters: Construction sales grew 12% in Q2, yet its margin fell to 1.7%. The full-year goal calls for a higher margin.
Worry ifQ3 Construction adjusted EBIT margin is below 1.8%. Or CNH cuts its 2026 margin outlook below 1.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Construction adjusted EBIT margin is at least 1.8%, and CNH keeps its 1.8%-2.3% full-year range.
Why it matters: Agriculture made up most Q2 sales, but its margin fell to 5.2% from 8.1%. A result below the full-year goal would show continued pressure.
Worry ifQ3 Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin is below 5.0%. Or CNH cuts its 2026 margin outlook below 5.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin is at least 5.0%, and CNH keeps its 5.0%-5.5% full-year range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $387 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,475 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CNH said dealer stocks are normalizing and farm fleets are aging. Lower dealer stocks could set up demand when farmers replace equipment.
Supportive ifCNH says dealer inventories are lower. It says older fleets are bringing more replacement orders.
Worry ifCNH says dealer inventories are still high or rising. It reports no increase in replacement orders.