Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CNO Financial Group (CNO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.43-2.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.09 → 5.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable management and execution | The stable management and low risk profile add confidence. | Intact | Significant management turnover or execution failures reported | No major disruptions; Q3 beat & raised guidance Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates with lifted outlook; routine director transition noted; no negative execution events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CNO is a steady insurance-growth business with signs of recurring sales momentum, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis remains intact but is on watch because recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort and the latest quarter brought an earnings miss.
CNO trades at a sizable premium to peers, attributed to durable business qualities, while the expectations gap is neutral. The valuation is expensive, so the market appears to recognize those qualities already rather than leaving a clear expectations gap.
Over the multi-year view, continued sales growth and agent growth could support management's goals of profitable growth and higher operating earnings. Near term, results are mixed: management raised 2026 guidance in the second and third quarters, but revenue comparisons are uneven and the latest quarter missed. A reversal of the raised guidance would also damage management credibility.
The thesis depends on CNO sustaining sales and operating earnings growth while delivering on its raised guidance. Near term, falling rates could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as MET, AFL, and PRU could support sector momentum. The evidence on comparable third-quarter operating earnings is limited.
CNO's recurring sales indicators and management execution support the multi-year view, but recent misses, mixed financial delivery, and an expensive valuation keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| CNO Financial Group targets operating EPS between $4.25 and $4.45 for 2026. |
| Broken |
| Operating EPS falls below $4.25 or above $4.45 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.25 USD per share and <=4.45 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margins near current levels | Profit margins remain robust, supporting steady earnings. | Intact | Profit margins fall significantly below 25% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus of -5% in next 12 months | A primary condition in CNO Financial Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=-5% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | Revenue decline worse than -5% YoY over next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.94 → $5.19 · observed estimates
$4.20B → $4.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.95 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.95 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.95 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.94 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.95 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.95 | $4,198,950,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.98 | $4,201,450,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.00 | $4,119,000,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.00 | $4,119,000,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.97 | $4,198,963,205 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.07 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.09 | $4,202,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.09 | $4,202,446,200 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.10 | $4,202,450,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.10 | $4,202,446,185 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.11 | $4,202,446,185 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.11 | $4,202,446,185 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.14 | $4,213,395,900 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.16 | $4,213,395,900 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.19 | $4,249,399,999 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.