CNO Financial Group (CNO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.75+0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3) is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exch…
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS target signals progress toward the annual goal of $4.25-$4.45. This would show strong earnings momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 operating EPS reported at or above $1.05.
Worry ifQ2 2026 operating EPS was below $1.05.
Why it matters: Maintaining sales growth is key for future earnings. A decline could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifTotal new annualized premiums (NAP) grow year over year for Q3, maintaining the streak.
Less concerning ifNAP declines year over year in Q3, breaking the sales growth streak.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good capital management. It shows financial health and investor trust.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend of at least $0.17 per share declared in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend declared or a reduction in the dividend amount in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance show how management views future profits. An increase means strong performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 operating EPS guidance by over 8%. This is higher than current levels.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 operating EPS guidance or keeps it the same.
Why it matters: High investment losses can hurt profits. Watching this helps check financial health.
Worry ifNet investment losses reported above $15 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet investment losses reported below $15 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifCNO declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.17 in Q3.
Worry ifCNO does not declare a dividend in Q3.
Why it matters: High costs from the TechMod project may hurt profits in the next quarters.
Worry ifTechMod expenses reported at or below $13.7 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifTechMod costs were over $13.7 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Better net income shows recovery from past earnings misses. It shows improved performance.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $38 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income reported below $38 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth means the company is making more money. This supports the higher guidance for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 operating EPS growth exceeds 40% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 operating EPS growth is below 30% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Growth in new annualized premiums shows strong sales. This shows good market demand.
Supportive ifNew annualized premiums growth exceeds 5% in Q3 compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifNew annualized premiums growth falls below 3% in Q3 compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good capital management. It also shows confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the debt ratio low shows good capital management. It also shows financial stability.
Watch forThe debt-to-total capital ratio is under 28% in Q3.
Also watch forThe debt-to-total capital ratio is over 28% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $199 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,103 loss on $10,000 · 11.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.