ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. (COFS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.30+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
Why it matters: Progress on tax credits could help profits and support growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new tax credit deal that could boost earnings.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about tax credits.
Why it matters: Making more money from noninterest income is key for profits. A drop may show problems.
Supportive ifNoninterest income increases by at least 10% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNoninterest income falls more in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may mean worse loan profits and lower earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 3.59%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays the same or goes up above 3.59%.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans can show higher credit risk. This may lower asset quality.
Worry ifNonperforming loans to total loans exceed 1.1%.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans to total loans decrease below 1.0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,527 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Success with tax credits could boost profits and help growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new tax credit plan or partnership that may save money.
Worry ifThere are no news or problems with getting tax credit chances.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact ChoiceOne's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop could show problems with fee-based income.
Worry ifNoninterest income fell more than $1.6 million from Q2.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Steady earnings growth shows management is doing well. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS shows growth compared to Q1's $0.91.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS declines compared to Q1's $0.91.
Why it matters: Core loan growth is key for revenue. A decline signals potential issues in loan demand.
Worry ifCore loans grow at least 5% annualized in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCore loans decline year over year or grow less than 5% annualized in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The new branch is part of growth plans. Delays could impact expansion efforts.
Supportive ifThe new branch in Troy, MI opens as planned in late 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the Troy branch is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Tax credits lower tax costs. A big drop shows good money management.
Supportive ifTax expense decreases by at least $400,000 in Q3 2026 due to tax credits.
Worry ifTax expense does not decrease or increases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing charge-offs can signal credit quality issues. This is a key measure of risk.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, net charge-offs are more than 0.04% of average loans.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.04% of average loans in Q3 2026.