ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. (COFS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.61+3.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -16.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: ChoiceOne bought 40,000 shares in Q3 and said the plan supports its capital goals. Future purchases would show the plan remains active.
Supportive ifQ4 results report another share repurchase under the current plan.
Worry ifQ4 results report no shares bought, or say the plan ended or was paused.
Why it matters: Q3 margin rose as loan income grew and funding costs fell. A lower margin would show that this gain did not last.
Watch forQ4 GAAP net interest margin is 3.67% or higher, above Q3's 3.67% level.
Also watch forQ4 GAAP net interest margin falls below 3.59%, the Q2 level.
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans rose in Q3, though charge-offs stayed low. A further rise would add to credit concerns.
Worry ifNonperforming loans exceed 1.25% of loans at December 31, 2026, above the Q3 level.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans fall to 1.07% or lower, the Q2 level, and net charge-offs stay at or below 0.08%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is a stated priority. Faster growth can add interest income, while weak growth would break recent momentum.
Watch forQ4 core loans grow at a rate above 4% annualized, matching or beating Q3's 4.4% pace.
Also watch forQ4 core loans are flat or decline from the prior quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,527 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.