Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Coherent Corp. (COHR)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$169.76-12.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.16 → 14.14 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow AI datacenter & communications revenue to $1.36B by 2026-Q3 | A primary condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.36B. | Under Pressure | AI datacenter revenue falls below $969M by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented technology business, with its current thesis centered on expanding AI datacenter infrastructure. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is high.
The evidence labels the valuation expensive, while also describing it as cheap versus peers and the priced-in tag as justified. The valuation model has low confidence, and the negative expectations gap suggests market expectations may be demanding despite the peer comparison.
Over the near term, management has kept its focus on AI datacenter growth, revenue growth, and gross margin expansion, and the reported results have advanced those priorities. Recent revenue and margins improved, but the evidence also notes a history of misses and recent misses, so execution remains a risk.
The multi-year view depends on continued AI datacenter demand and management’s ability to expand capacity while sustaining revenue and margin progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or steadier results from technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
COHR’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by growth and margin execution, but valuation, high risk, and weaker confidence make delivery important over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We expect fiscal 2027 pro forma revenue growth to exceed 60%.”” “Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was $2.37 billion, with GAAP gross margin of 39.1% and GAAP net income of $1.90 per diluted share.” Revenue was $2.046 billion in 2026-Q4.
Achieve EPS of $1.62 in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.62. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.52 | Diluted EPS: $1.90 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.62. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20261.9 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 40% in 2026-Q2 | Gross margin improved to 37.7%, near guidance. | Under Pressure | Gross margin falls below 37% | Gross margin: 38.47% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 39% and <= 41%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 202638.474701 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve total revenue of $1.806B by 2026-Q3 | A primary condition in Coherent Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.806B. | Under Pressure | Total revenue falls below $1.498B by 2026-Q3 | Revenue: $2.37B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.806B. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20262,370,324,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.26 → $14.14 · observed estimates
$13.43B → $14.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.26 | $13,434,724,516 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.05 | $14,577,090,118 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.07 | $14,583,918,445 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.07 | $14,583,916,700 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.07 | $14,672,677,295 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.16 | $14,672,678,979 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.16 | $14,672,678,979 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.16 | $14,672,678,979 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.16 | $14,672,678,979 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.16 | $14,672,678,979 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.16 | $14,672,677,295 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.16 | $14,672,677,295 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.16 | $14,672,677,295 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.14 | $14,659,254,545 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.14 | $14,659,254,545 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.14 | $14,659,254,545 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.14 | $14,659,254,545 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.14 | $14,659,256,229 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.14 | $14,659,257,887 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.15 | $14,666,784,202 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.15 | $14,666,784,202 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.15 | $14,666,784,202 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.15 | $14,666,785,781 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.15 | $14,666,785,781 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.15 | $14,666,787,787 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.15 | $14,666,787,787 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.15 | $14,666,787,787 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.09 | $14,639,698,313 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.09 | $14,639,698,313 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.09 | $14,639,698,313 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.09 | $14,639,698,313 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.09 | $14,639,698,313 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.07 | $14,628,814,867 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.07 | $14,628,814,867 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.07 | $14,647,449,620 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.07 | $14,647,449,620 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.07 | $14,647,449,620 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.07 | $14,647,449,620 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.07 | $14,647,449,620 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.14 | $14,700,063,012 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $14.14 | $14,700,063,012 | 12 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.