Coherent Corp. (COHR)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$281.86+6.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COHR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COHR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-31
Other Events. Performance Stock Units On August 27, 2026 (the “Grant Date”), the Compensation and Human Capital Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Coherent Corp. approved special incentive awards for key members of its leadership team, including James R. Anderson, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, with a target value of $50 million, Sherri Luther, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, with a target value of $15 million, Julie Eng, Chief Technology Officer and Execu…
Why it matters: Sustained growth in this segment is crucial for Coherent's overall performance. It reflects demand for AI infrastructure.
Supportive ifDatacenter revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifDatacenter revenue growth drops below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth helps management focus on growth. It shows the company is recovering.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will reveal if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit and revenue growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows another loss and declining revenue.
Why it matters: Progress in this partnership could boost Coherent's R&D and capacity. This is key for AI growth.
Supportive ifWatch for news on new projects or goals in the NVIDIA partnership.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the partnership's progress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$373 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $985 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,798 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This investment helps Coherent make products and do research for AI.
Supportive ifCoherent will share new plans for production or research from NVIDIA's investment.
Worry ifNo new plans or capacity expansions are announced. This may mean delays.
Why it matters: This EPS guidance shows how Coherent can turn revenue growth into profit.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 is confirmed between $1.85 and $2.05.
Worry ifEPS guidance is below $1.85. This shows weaker profit expectations.
Why it matters: This range shows how well Coherent meets AI datacenter demand. A strong forecast supports growth.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance is over $2.4B. This shows stronger demand than expected.
Worry ifGuidance is below $2.2B. This suggests weaker demand or capacity problems.
Why it matters: Gross margin shows how well the company operates. Keeping or improving margins shows good cost control.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 41.5%. This shows effective cost management.
Worry ifGross margin is below 39.5%. This indicates possible cost pressures.
Why it matters: Consistent earnings beats show strong performance and good management. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifEarnings per share is over $2.05. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifEarnings per share is below $1.85. This suggests operational challenges.