Coherent Corp. (COHR)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$169.76-12.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COHR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 45.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COHR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-04
| Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Coherent Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 ended September 30, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Why it matters: Margins rose in FY26, and leaders named further margin gains as a priority. A result above the range would extend that trend.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP gross margin is above 41.5%.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP gross margin is below 39.5%.
Why it matters: The deal links NVIDIA's purchase commitment to more supply, research, and U.S. factory capacity. A change could weaken that growth path.
Worry ifCoherent or NVIDIA reports a change or end to the deal, or cuts the purchase commitment or capacity rights.
Less concerning ifBoth firms report the deal remains in place, with the purchase commitment and capacity rights unchanged.
Why it matters: The tech sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing. A drop below its median would add pressure to Coherent's growth story.
Worry ifCoherent's revenue growth from a year ago falls below the tech sector's stated median.
Less concerning ifCoherent's revenue growth from a year ago stays above the tech sector's stated median.
Why it matters: The company gave this tax range for Q1 FY27. A higher rate can cut into reported profit per share.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP tax rate is above 20%.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP tax rate is at or below 20%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$373 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,054 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,023 loss on $10,000 · 60.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.