Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Columbia Banking System (COLB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.43-3.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.29 → 3.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COLB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete systems conversion and realize cost savings by Q3 2026 | Columbia Bank finished its systems conversion and cut costs by $18 million. | Intact | Systems conversion not completed and cost savings not realized by Q3 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a multi-year view tied to lending relationships, funding costs, and integration results. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though overall financial performance and management signals are neutral.
COLB is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is small and the pricing is tagged as justified. Fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations; valuation evidence is limited to these qualitative signals.
Near term, recent earnings beat and rising net interest margin support the operating picture, while commercial loan growth has slowed and total loan balances remain lower amid runoff and pricing pressure. Management has delivered on relationship lending and made progress on funding mix and Pacific Premier integration, but execution is mixed overall. A guidance cut or lower interest rates would be meaningful risks; the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether relationship-based commercial lending can keep growing and total loan balances stabilize. Funding costs, deposit trends, and continued margin progress also matter, especially if the Fed starts cutting rates. Sector momentum could help if bellwether banks continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
For the next 1 to 3 years, COLB’s thesis rests on steady lending relationships and continued execution on funding and integration, with rate sensitivity and loan runoff as the main constraints. The evidence supports an intact thesis, but the overall picture remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It pays a steady dividend of $0.37 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend cut below $0.37 per share |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain EPS near $3.05 in FY26 and grow to $3.38 in FY27 | Earnings per share beat estimates at $0.72 last quarter. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.05 in FY26 or below $3.38 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.78 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $3.05 FY26 and >= $3.38 FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 22, 20260.78 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near or above consensus | A primary condition in Columbia Banking System's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -3% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below -3% YoY in FY27 | Revenue growth: 11.63% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= -3% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202611.627907 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.38 → $3.34 · observed estimates
$2.85B → $2.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.38 | $2,854,867,720 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.35 | $2,829,925,530 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.35 | $2,829,925,530 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.32 | $2,821,500,860 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.32 | $2,821,500,860 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.31 | $2,821,500,860 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $2,813,901,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $2,813,901,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.30 | $2,813,901,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.29 | $2,813,364,310 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.29 | $2,813,364,310 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.29 | $2,811,142,080 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.29 | $2,811,142,080 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.29 | $2,811,142,080 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.28 | $2,807,270,310 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.29 | $2,810,076,259 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.28 | $2,805,517,151 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.28 | $2,801,433,817 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.28 | $2,800,654,550 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.29 | $2,801,693,550 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.29 | $2,801,693,550 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.29 | $2,801,707,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.29 | $2,801,257,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.29 | $2,802,338,285 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.29 | $2,802,338,285 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.29 | $2,802,338,285 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.29 | $2,802,338,285 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.30 | $2,802,823,854 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.30 | $2,802,823,854 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.31 | $2,802,823,854 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.30 | $2,800,582,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.30 | $2,800,582,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.30 | $2,799,707,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.30 | $2,799,707,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.30 | $2,799,707,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.30 | $2,799,707,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.30 | $2,799,707,187 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.30 | $2,799,929,376 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.33 | $2,790,905,929 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.35 | $2,792,263,211 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.35 | $2,792,263,211 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.35 | $2,792,263,211 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.35 | $2,792,263,211 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.35 | $2,792,876,960 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.35 | $2,792,876,960 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.35 | $2,792,876,960 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.35 | $2,792,876,960 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.35 | $2,791,484,653 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.35 | $2,791,484,653 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.35 | $2,791,498,699 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.34 | $2,791,498,699 | 11 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.