Columbia Banking System (COLB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.80+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COLB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
COLB — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-14
Other Events. On Aug 14, 2026, Columbia Banking System, Inc., parent company of Columbia Bank, announced its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.37 per common share. The dividend is payable September 14, 2026, to shareholders of record as of August 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Why it matters: Getting these savings will show the systems change and branch closings worked. It affects profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached all cost savings from the systems change.
Worry ifManagement states that expected cost savings will not be realized by June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may show weak customer trust. It can also mean more competition.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits stay stable or grow compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could affect investor confidence in Columbia Banking System.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median of 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above the median of 12% year over year.
Why it matters: This report will show how well the company is doing after the acquisition.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $0.76 in the Q3 report.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.73 in the Q3 report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $250 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial health and performance. It could impact stock price and investor sentiment.
Watch forThe earnings report shows earnings and revenue growth that is better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows earnings and revenue decline that is worse than expected.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial loans supports the bank's strategy and overall financial health.
Supportive ifCommercial loan balances are growing more than 6% each year.
Worry ifCommercial loan balances are growing less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: A successful systems change helps improve operations. It also boosts customer service.
Supportive ifManagement says all systems change goals will be met by June 30, 2026.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or problems with the systems change process.
Why it matters: A smooth systems conversion is key to cost management. Delays could hurt profitability.
Worry ifManagement says the system change is more than 80% done.
Less concerning ifThe completion rate is still below 60%. This shows there are ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Stable deposits show strong banking relationships. This is true even with competition.
Supportive ifTotal deposits stabilize or increase from $52.1 billion as of June 30, 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits drop further from $52.1 billion.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show lower profits. This could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income drops more than $5 million from Q2's $589 million.
Less concerning ifNet interest income stays flat or increases from Q2's $589 million.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. This can boost profits.
Supportive ifQ3 efficiency ratio drops below 55.15%, improving from Q2's level.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is over 58% in Q3.
Why it matters: A big drop in total assets may show issues in balance sheet management.
Worry ifTotal assets fall below $66 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal assets stabilize or grow above $66 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong money management. It shows loyalty to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.37 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or not maintained at $0.37 per share.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it may show less profit. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifIf Q3 net interest margin drops below 3.90%, it means less money from loans.
Less concerning ifIf net interest margin stays above 3.90%, it shows steady income.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial loans shows good banking relationships. This can increase overall earnings.
Supportive ifCommercial loan balances increase by more than 5% annualized in Q3.
Worry ifIf commercial loan growth is below 5% each year, it means weaker demand.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.30% of average loans and leases in Q3.
Less concerning ifIf net charge-offs stay at or below 0.30%, it shows stable credit quality.