Columbia Banking System (COLB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.43-3.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COLB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COLB — President transition
Dated 2026-10-27
Co-President — Torran Nixon: The filing describes an orderly transition of a senior executive (Co-President) into an advisor role leading up to retirement, which is a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Q3 net charge-offs were 0.24% of average loans, while credit loss provision rose to $33 million. Higher losses would weaken credit quality.
Worry ifQuarterly net charge-offs rise above 0.25% of average loans. Or non-performing assets rise above 0.42% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay at or below 0.24%, and non-performing assets stay at or below 0.39%.
Why it matters: Commercial loan growth eased from 6% to 3% on an annual basis in the first three quarters. More slowing would test relationship lending progress.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth is below 3% annualized in the next report. Or total loans fall below $46.9 billion.
Less concerning ifCommercial loan growth reaches at least 5% annualized, and total loans stop falling.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 4.11% in Q3 as deposits replaced higher-cost funding. Some Q3 gains came from one-time loan repayments.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin stays above 4.0%, with lower funding costs and no large one-time loan repayment boost.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.93%, the Q2 level, as funding costs rise or deposits shift away.
Why it matters: The board approved a new buyback after the prior plan ended. Actual purchases will show how much excess capital the bank returns.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings release reports new share repurchases under the $1.2 billion plan. Capital ratios stay near Q3 levels.
Worry ifThe bank reports no repurchases under the plan in its next two earnings reports. Or capital ratios fall below Q3 levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $216 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Columbia plans to redeem about $240 million in junior debt by early 2027. Completion would carry out its announced capital shift.
Watch forA filing confirms the planned $240 million redemption by early 2027. It discloses no larger amount.
Also watch forThe redemption is delayed past early 2027 or canceled. Or new debt replaces it and raises the total amount.