Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Traeger, Inc. (COOK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.51-2.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.65 → 1.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COOK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow at least $30M in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected above $30M. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $30M in FY26 | Free cash flow: $26.404M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202626,404,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap turnaround with elevated risk, not a durable compounder today. The multi-year view is in a watch state because recent performance trails its industry cohort, while Project Gravity is showing some operating progress.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, at a 3.55-point premium to peers, with low model confidence. The expectations gap is 0.16, and optionality is the main valuation driver, but the evidence does not specify exactly what assumptions the market has priced in.
Near term, revenue remains weak: quarterly revenue was below prior-year levels, and management lowered its 2026 revenue guidance. Adjusted EBITDA stayed steady across the first two quarters, while operating cash flow rose and Project Gravity remains on track, but erratic earnings and volatile management add uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether Project Gravity can keep improving the operating model and profitability while revenue stabilizes. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
COOK has early signs of cost and cash-generation progress, but weak revenue, a recent guidance reduction, and stretched valuation leave the long-term thesis dependent on consistent execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin should improve to about 40%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 39.5% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 39.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 39.5% and <= 40.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202639.461398 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA guidance is unchanged despite lower revenue expectations, and gross margin guidance has been increased to reflect favorable tariff assumptions relative to prior expectations, revising our previously issued gross margin guidance range of 39.5% to 40.5%.” “3 Guidance For Full Year Fiscal 2026 Based on year to date performance and its outlook for the rest of the year, the Compa ny is narrowing the ranges on its total revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance and reiterating its gross margin and free cash flow guidance for Fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue between $465M and $485M in 2026 | A primary condition in Traeger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $465M and <= $485M total revenue. | Broken | Revenue falls below $465M in FY26 | Revenue: $120.163M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $465M and <= $485M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026120,163,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.66 → $1.65 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.66 | $487,271,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.66 | $487,278,657 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.50 | $471,485,710 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.00 | $465,357,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.00 | $465,357,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.00 | $465,357,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.43 | $465,357,140 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.43 | $465,357,140 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.66 | $470,637,100 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.65 | $465,356,071 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.