Traeger, Inc. (COOK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.97+2.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COOK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COOK — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-03-06
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On March 5, 2026 , Traeger, Inc. (the “Company”) received written notice (the “Notice”) from the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that it is not in compliance with the continued listing standard set forth in Section 802.01C of the NYSE’s Listed Company Manual (“Section 802.01C”) because the average closing price of the Company’s common stock was less than $1.00 per share over a consecutive…
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well Traeger makes money and runs its business.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported between $57M and $67M during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $57M during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: MEATER sales performance is crucial for overall revenue. A recovery would signal brand strength.
Supportive ifMEATER sales rise from last quarter after recent drops.
Worry ifMEATER sales keep falling, showing ongoing problems in that area.
Why it matters: Project Gravity is important for making more money. Its success will show if the company can run smoothly.
Supportive ifManagement says cash flow is better. Costs are lower because of Project Gravity.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or problems with Project Gravity.
Why it matters: Gross margin is key for making money. Changes will show how well the company controls costs.
Watch forGross margin is over 40% in Q3, showing good cost control.
Also watch forGross margin falls below 39.5% in Q3, suggesting cost pressures.
Why it matters: Better gross margin is important for Traeger. It helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin is 39.5% or higher. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 39.5%, suggesting ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: The company lowered its revenue outlook for 2026. Changes in guidance will show how well Traeger is managing its challenges.
Worry ifManagement expects revenue to be between $435 million and $465 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to below $435 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer sell-through trends will show how strong demand is and how well marketing works.
Supportive ifConsumer sell-through trends improved from Q1 to Q2 during the earnings call.
Worry ifConsumer sell-through trends decline compared to Q1 during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money Traeger makes. It helps us see cost management during revenue drops.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is more than $17.3 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $17.3 million.
Why it matters: Traeger is in a declining sector. Changes in sector performance can affect its outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in three years.
Less concerning ifSector revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: This is a key test of Traeger's progress towards its annual revenue target of $465M to $485M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $100M or more, showing strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $100M, indicating ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how management feels about challenges. Meeting it shows stability.
Worry ifRevenue for FY26 lands within the range of $435 million to $465 million.
Less concerning ifRevenue below $435 million shows bigger problems in sales.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance means cost management is working, even with lower revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for FY26 stays between $57 million and $67 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $57 million. This may mean profit issues.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost control and pricing strategies.
Supportive ifGross margin for FY26 lands between 40% and 41%.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 40%, signaling pricing or cost issues.
Why it matters: Strong sales from this partnership may mean Traeger is expanding well.
Supportive ifSales from Lowe's exceed expectations in the first quarter post-launch.
Worry ifLowe's sales are lower than expected. This shows a weak market response.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$335 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,001 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,678 loss on $10,000 · 66.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.