Traeger, Inc. (COOK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.51-2.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COOK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COOK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Traeger cut its sales range after weak MEATER sales and channel changes. Sales below the new low end would point to deeper demand pressure.
Worry ifFY26 revenue comes in below $435 million, the low end of the August guidance.
Less concerning ifFY26 revenue lands at or above $435 million.
Why it matters: The August full-year margin range starts at 40%. A Q3 margin below that mark would test whether tariff benefits and cost cuts can offset weak sales.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 40%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is 40% or higher.
Why it matters: The Lowe's deal adds a large retail outlet. A launch on time would show the new channel is moving ahead despite near-term sales pressure.
Supportive ifLowe's lists or stocks Traeger products, and the company reports the partnership has launched.
Worry ifTraeger reports that the Lowe's launch is delayed, canceled, or not yet active.
Why it matters: Traeger kept its $57 million to $67 million profit range despite lower sales. A miss would weaken the case that cost cuts can protect profit.
Worry ifFY26 adjusted EBITDA comes in below $57 million, the low end of the August guidance.
Less concerning ifFY26 adjusted EBITDA lands at or above $57 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,001 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,790 loss on $10,000 · 57.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.