Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Coty (COTY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.91+12.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.25 → 0.25 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COTY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves from -$203.1M in Q3 2026 | Cash flow from operations is a focus, despite a fall to -$203.1M in Q3 2026. | Recovered | Cash flow from operations falls below -$203.1M in any quarter | Cash from operations: $116M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations > -$203.1M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 20, 2026116,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged consumer staples business with a possible recovery element, rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is still in a watch state: momentum improved and the signal shifted from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak.
The valuation evidence is limited and has low confidence. It describes valuation as aligned with peers, with expectations close to the model view, so there is no clear evidence of a large expectations gap. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low measured fragility.
Near term, execution remains uncertain: COTY has missed across recent quarters, and the next earnings report carries a meaningful risk of weaker guidance. Over the multi-year thesis, debt reduction is clear progress, but FY26 revenue fell 2% on a like-for-like basis and adjusted operating income fell 27%; margins also contracted, leaving profitability improvement unproven. CEO and CFO transitions add change, while management’s core-business strategy remains a stated priority.
The main swing factor is whether COTY can improve revenue and profitability while continuing to reduce debt. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment could add pressure near term, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader consumer staples backdrop. Evidence on sustained execution remains limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on a recovery in operating performance and continued balance-sheet progress, with elevated near-term risk and only medium confidence in the evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross profit stabilizes near $791.9M in Q3 2026 |
| A supporting condition in Coty's published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit >= $791.9M in next 4 quarters. |
| Broken |
| Gross profit falls below $791.9M in any quarter |
Gross profit: $698.8M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $791.9M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 20, 2026698,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$372M in Q3 2026 | Management targets operating income recovery after a sharp drop to -$372M in Q3 2026. | Broken | Operating income falls below -$372M in any quarter | Operating income: $-41M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > -$372M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 20, 2026-41,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves from -1.0% YoY in Q3 2026 | A supporting condition in Coty's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -1.0% YoY in next 4 quarters. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below -1.0% YoY in any quarter | Revenue growth: 1.34% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= -1.0% YoY in next 4 quarters. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 20, 20261.341424 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.39 → $0.25 · observed estimates
$5.75B → $5.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.39 | $5,753,025,027 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.39 | $5,753,025,027 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.38 | $5,705,314,489 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.37 | $5,687,169,306 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.34 | $5,638,070,590 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.29 | $5,440,564,745 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.29 | $5,440,564,745 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.29 | $5,440,564,745 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.27 | $5,374,981,412 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.27 | $5,355,253,484 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.27 | $5,355,253,484 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.27 | $5,355,253,484 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $5,299,949,664 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $5,299,953,085 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.25 | $5,244,694,729 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.25 | $5,226,841,848 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.25 | $5,226,841,848 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.25 | $5,226,841,848 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.25 | $5,225,630,562 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.25 | $5,226,246,135 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.25 | $5,226,246,135 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.25 | $5,226,246,135 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.25 | $5,226,281,849 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.25 | $5,226,281,849 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.24 | $5,226,288,992 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.24 | $5,226,288,992 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.24 | $5,226,288,992 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.25 | $5,226,606,999 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.