Coty (COTY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.91+12.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COTY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-11
CFO — Laurent Mercier: The CFO is transitioning out of the role with a named successor (Soraya Benchikh) and a structured advisory agreement, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Coty said it would make final portfolio choices after its Consumer Beauty review. Those choices may shape the division's sales and cost base.
Watch forBy December 31, 2026, Coty names its final Consumer Beauty portfolio choices. It also sets clear steps to support its remaining brands.
Also watch forBy December 31, 2026, Coty has not made final portfolio choices. Or it names choices that leave key brands without a clear plan.
Why it matters: Coty said the Gucci Beauty license exit will cut sales and profit in FY28. A clear plan can show how Coty aims to soften that loss.
Watch forCoty sets sales or cost targets for core brands, new licenses, or cost cuts to address the FY28 Gucci Beauty exit.
Also watch forCoty reports the Gucci Beauty exit is near and gives no clear targets for core brands, new licenses, or cost cuts.
Why it matters: Coty returned to reported sales growth in Q4, but like-for-like sales still fell 1%. Growth above zero would show a firmer start to FY27.
Supportive ifIn the November 4 earnings report, Q1 FY27 like-for-like sales grow year over year.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 like-for-like sales fall year over year, extending the decline from Q4.
Why it matters: Consumer Beauty sales fell 3% like-for-like in Q4. A smaller drop would show progress in a division that remains under pressure.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 Consumer Beauty like-for-like sales fall by less than 3%, or turn positive.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 Consumer Beauty like-for-like sales fall 3% or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $534 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,170 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.