Coty (COTY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.930.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COTY — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 19, 2026, Coty Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The release also includes forward-looking statements about the Company’s outlook. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated in this report by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Se…
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations supports Coty's financial health and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or remains flat.
Why it matters: The $400 million from the Gucci license may help Coty reduce debt and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifCoty shows positive cash flow from operations in the quarter after the change.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This is true even with the transition money.
Why it matters: A steady or rising gross margin shows better cost control and pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin is expected to be above 61.8% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 61.8% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: The Gucci lawsuit outcome may affect Coty's brand deals and finances.
Watch forA good ruling for Coty lets them keep the Gucci license.
Also watch forA bad ruling ends the Gucci license agreement.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit means better cost control and pricing power. This is important for Coty.
Supportive ifGross profit increases year-over-year by more than 7%.
Worry ifGross profit declines or grows less than 3%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This shows Coty's strategy is working.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q1 2026 shows a positive change from -$372M to above -$200M.
Worry ifOperating income remains below -$372M in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger financial health and smoother operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $422 million in Q4.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $422 million in Q4.
Why it matters: If the Consumer Staples sector shows revenue growth, it may benefit Coty as well.
Watch forConsumer Staples revenue growth speeds up to over 6% compared to last year.
Also watch forConsumer Staples revenue growth stays under 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The transition impacts Coty’s cash flow and strategic focus. It may free up resources for core brands.
Supportive ifCoty will get the full $400 million from the Gucci deal by September 30, 2027.
Worry ifCoty faces delays or issues in the transition process, affecting cash flow.
Why it matters: Cash flow recovery is important for Coty to invest and manage its debt.
Supportive ifQ3 cash flow from operations turns positive after -$203 million.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Consumer Beauty is important for growth. Better results would show a strong strategy.
Supportive ifConsumer Beauty net revenues will show a yearly increase in the next earnings report.
Worry ifConsumer Beauty's net revenues will fall more compared to last year in the next report.
Why it matters: The lawsuit's outcome could affect Coty's brand and finances.
Worry ifThe lawsuit is good for Coty. It lowers possible liabilities.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit is bad. It raises liabilities and may cause problems.
Why it matters: A rise in gross profit margin shows better pricing and cost control. This helps Coty grow.
Supportive ifQ4 gross profit margin improves from the 61.8% reported in Q3.
Worry ifQ4 gross profit margin declines further.
Why it matters: Closing the offering will show if Coty can handle its debt well. This is important for financial stability.
Supportive ifThe offering closes on or around October 15, 2025, as planned.
Worry ifThe offering does not close by the expected date or on unfavorable terms.
Why it matters: Coty needs to improve operating income. This is important for its financial health.
Supportive ifQ4 operating income shows a positive change compared to Q3's -$372 million.
Worry ifQ4 operating income stays negative or gets worse than Q3.
Why it matters: This plan aims to make Coty's main business stronger. Progress shows good execution.
Supportive ifManagement will share better sales and market share growth in the next earnings call.
Worry ifContinued declines in sell-out performance and market share in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A worsening decline would show ongoing problems in the Consumer Beauty segment. This is true even with management's focus.
Worry ifConsumer Beauty revenue declines more than 10% year over year in Q1.
Less concerning ifConsumer Beauty revenue declines less than 10% year over year in Q1.
Why it matters: Cutting debt helps make Coty stronger financially.
Supportive ifTotal debt decreases further from $3,088.2 million in Q4 to below $3 billion in Q1.
Worry ifTotal debt increases or remains above $3,088.2 million in Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $505 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,843 loss on $10,000 · 58.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.