Central Plains Bancshares Inc (CPBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.450.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
CPBI — officer change
Dated 2026-07-14
Bradley M. Kool: The company entered into a change in control agreement with Bradley M. Kool, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence in Central Plains Bancshares.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, growth may weaken. This could worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would show strong performance in a decelerating sector. It can signal ongoing strength.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for financial health and supports future investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $3M in the next quarterly earnings.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in the next quarterly earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$48 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $141 loss on $10,000 · 1.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $495 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping this level shows the company controls costs well. It helps keep profits up.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $1.1M for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was below $1.1M for Q2.
Why it matters: Fluctuations in cash flow can affect the company's ability to fund operations and growth. Consistent cash flow is crucial for stability.
Watch forOperating cash flow is now positive. It has increased since Q2 2026.
Also watch forOperating cash flow stays negative or drops compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Beginning the buyback program shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can boost share price.
Supportive ifThe company starts a buyback program for at least 10% of its shares.
Worry ifNo buyback activity reported by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: The financial sector is currently growing. A slowdown could impact CPBI's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth helps the company make money. It also builds investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 15% year over year in the next quarterly earnings.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year in the next quarterly earnings.
Why it matters: Approval would allow the company to repurchase 10% of its shares. This could boost investor confidence and support the stock price.
Supportive ifApproval is given for the new stock buyback plan.
Worry ifApproval is denied or delayed longer than expected.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow makes people worry. They question if the company can keep running and growing.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is reported negative for Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow remains positive for Q3.