Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.40+6.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and recently missed its own guidance. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPSS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-14
The registrant disclaims any implication that the agreements relating to the transactions described in this report are other than agreements entered into in the ordinary course of its business. Warehouse Credit Facility Amended and Renewed On July 9, 2026, Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. ("CPS" or the "Company") and its wholly-owned subsidiary Page Eight Funding LLC (the “Borrower”) amended and renewed a revolving credit agreement (the "Credit Agreement") and related agreements, all of whic…
Why it matters: Keeping or raising credit lines is key for funding growth and running operations.
Supportive ifWarehouse lines of credit were above $679.9 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifWarehouse lines of credit drop below $600 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The increased credit facility supports growth. If it leads to more contract purchases, it’s positive.
Supportive ifNew contract purchases exceed $600 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew contract purchases fall below $500 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or beating EPS guidance shows strong earnings and confidence from management.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance at or above $0.24 for the full year.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $0.24. This suggests potential weakness in earnings.
Why it matters: Exceeding this figure would show strong growth in loan origination volume, a key priority for CPS.
Supportive ifNew contract purchases reported above $758 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew contract purchases fall below $600 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the last three years.
Why it matters: A big rise in contract purchases means more loans are being made. This also shows the portfolio balance is growing.
Supportive ifNew contract purchases in Q3 are over $800 million. This shows strong growth in originations.
Worry ifNew contract purchases fall below $600 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: A growing portfolio balance means loans are being made successfully. It also shows good credit management.
Supportive ifTotal portfolio balance exceeds $4.5 billion in Q3.
Worry ifTotal portfolio balance drops below $4.2 billion. This suggests stagnation or decline.
Why it matters: Changes to the credit facility can affect cash flow and costs. It's key for funding.
Watch forNews of better terms or more borrowing capacity.
Also watch forNews of worse terms or less borrowing capacity.
Why it matters: More loans mean more money and profits. This shows strong demand for CPS's services.
Supportive ifIn Q3, loan origination volume is over $758 million. This shows growth from Q2.
Worry ifIn Q3, loan origination volume is under $533 million. This shows a slowdown.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs can mean worse credit quality. This affects profits and shows risk.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 7.5% of the average portfolio in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are below 7.0%. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: More delinquencies can show credit problems. This affects earnings and portfolio health.
Worry ifDelinquencies exceed 12.5% of the total portfolio in Q3.
Less concerning ifDelinquencies are below 11.5%. This shows better credit performance.
Why it matters: Successful securitization helps funding and growth. It shows CPS can manage its portfolio.
Supportive ifA new deal for over $80 million was announced.
Worry ifNo new securitization news in the next quarter. This may mean funding problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $402 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,213 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.