CPT
Camden Property TrustNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CPT has a composite score of -9.1, indicating a mixed analyst signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 70.7 and a low risk label of 20.8. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with unfavorable scenarios related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends weakening.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.22 (-18.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Update earnings guidance for 2026growthbehind7% progress
4/30: “Camden updated its earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $0.13 to $0.17, with a fiscal year range of $0.51 to $0.81. Despite updating guidance, the company reported an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in aligning expectations with financial performance.
- 2.Renew at-the-market sales programcapital allocationmixed37% progress
4/30: “Camden terminated its existing 'at the market' agreements and entered into separate replacement agreements.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Camden renewed its at-the-market sales program, indicating a focus on capital allocation. However, there is no direct financial impact reported yet, suggesting the initiative is in its early stages.
- 3.Address earnings missotherwatch50% progress
4/30: “Camden issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results, noting an earnings miss.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income fell to -$110.2M in 2025-Q4 from $108.9M in 2025-Q3, highlighting the earnings miss. The company has acknowledged the issue, but financial recovery remains to be seen.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | $0.41 – $0.45 | $0.44 | inside |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.74 – $0.78 | $0.77 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.34 – $0.38 | $0.40 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.31 – $0.35 | $0.34 | inside |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.32 – $0.36 | $0.36 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.27 – $0.31 | $0.31 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.01 – $1.05 | $0.21 | miss |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.22 – $0.26 | $-0.24 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 19%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −17%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.97 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 68/100, drawdown 66/100, beta 97/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 8 guided quarters · -31.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Update earnings guidance for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Camden aims to update its earnings guidance for 2026 based on current and expected views of the apartment market.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $0.13 to $0.17, with a fiscal year range of $0.51 to $0.81. Despite updating guidance, the company reported an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in aligning expectations with financial performance.
7%CEO/CFO:“Camden updated its earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Camden updated its earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expected earnings per common share - diluted $0.22 - $0.26”
- #2
Renew at-the-market sales program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Camden plans to renew its at-the-market sales program, which is set to expire soon.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Camden renewed its at-the-market sales program, indicating a focus on capital allocation. However, there is no direct financial impact reported yet, suggesting the initiative is in its early stages.
37%CEO/CFO:“Camden terminated its existing 'at the market' agreements and entered into separate replacement agreements.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Camden terminated its existing 'at the market' agreements and entered into separate replacement agreements.”
- #3
Address earnings miss
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Camden aims to address the recent earnings miss and improve financial performance.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income fell to -$110.2M in 2025-Q4 from $108.9M in 2025-Q3, highlighting the earnings miss. The company has acknowledged the issue, but financial recovery remains to be seen.
50%CEO/CFO:“Camden issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results, noting an earnings miss.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Camden issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results, noting an earnings miss.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPT Camden Property Trust | -9.1 | full | low |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Camden Property Trust (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. This press release refers to supplemental financial information available on the Company’s website. Copies of the press release and the supplemental information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report. This information shall not be deemed "filed" for…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 64 - 2026-04-309d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. To renew its “at the market sales program,” which expires pursuant to its terms on May 12, 2026, on April 28, 2026, Camden Property Trust, a Texas real estate investment trust (the “Company”), terminated its existing “at the market” agreements and entered into separate replacement “at the market” agreements (collectively, the “Agreements”) for the offer and/or sale of common shares of beneficial interest, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Shares”)…
capital allocationpositivescore 54
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.