Camden Property Trust (CPT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$103.71-0.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 75.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
CPT — Chair transition
Dated 2026-08-31
Executive Vice Chairman — D. Keith Oden: The Executive Vice Chairman retired from his executive role but continues to serve on the Board, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The Raleigh project was 88% leased in late July. Full lease-up would show progress on Camden's development plan.
Supportive ifCamden reports Camden Village District at 100% leased and no longer in lease-up.
Worry ifCamden Village District is still below 88% leased in the next update.
Why it matters: An August 31 filing names a material agreement but gives no deal terms here. A later filing can show what it means.
Watch forCamden files terms naming the counterparty, asset, and price, and confirms the deal closed.
Also watch forCamden says the agreement ended, or reports no closing by its deadline.
Why it matters: The court gave the settlement preliminary approval. Final approval and payment will close a named legal issue.
Supportive ifThe court grants final approval and Camden reports the $53 million settlement fund was paid.
Worry ifThe court denies final approval, or Camden says the settlement is still unpaid.
Why it matters: Camden's 2026 NOI midpoint is down 0.60%. Q3 results will show if property income is tracking that view.
Watch forQ3 same-property NOI grows year over year, above the 0.45% top of Camden's 2026 range.
Also watch forQ3 same-property NOI falls year over year, below the -1.65% bottom of Camden's 2026 range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,852 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Blended lease rates were down 0.2% in Q2. A move above zero would show rent growth is improving.
Supportive ifCamden reports Q3 effective blended lease rate growth above 0% year over year.
Worry ifCamden reports Q3 effective blended lease rate growth at or below -0.2%, no better than Q2.