Camden Property Trust (CPT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.69+0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 75.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPT — Chair transition
Dated 2026-08-31
Executive Vice Chairman — D. Keith Oden: The Executive Vice Chairman retired from his executive role but continues to serve on the Board, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: If the sector does better, Camden may do better too. This could make investors happier.
Supportive ifSector growth speeds up again. Revenue growth is moving back toward past highs.
Worry ifSector growth slows down or margins get worse.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show management believes in the stock's value. This may help the share price.
Supportive ifCamden buys back over $100 million in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCamden does not repurchase any shares in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive NOI growth shows better operations and market conditions. It is a key measure of profit.
Supportive ifSame property NOI growth turns positive, exceeding 0.0%.
Worry ifSame property NOI growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are a key driver of revenue. A decline could signal deeper issues in the market.
Worry ifOccupancy rates drop below 95.1% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rates are stable or above 95.1%. They are not dropping.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,294 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval of the litigation settlement could reduce future legal risks and costs. This may stabilize financial outlook.
Supportive ifThe court approves the $53 million settlement for the software.
Worry ifCourt denies the settlement approval or delays the process.
Why it matters: Better earnings mean the company is fixing its recent problems.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows a recovery. Results are better than the last quarter.
Worry ifEarnings continue to decline or miss expectations in the next reporting period.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance exceeds $9.38, it indicates strong earnings momentum. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS guidance is raised above $9.38.
Worry ifQ3 EPS guidance remains at or below $9.14.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth shows more demand and better pricing in the apartment market.
Supportive ifSame property revenue growth exceeds 1.00% for Q3.
Worry ifSame property revenue growth is below 0.00% for Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing the sale shows good capital management. It also makes the balance sheet stronger.
Supportive ifThe sale of the California portfolio is done. The money will be used to pay off debt.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or falls through.
Why it matters: If Core FFO guidance stays at $6.75, it shows stability in earnings despite market pressures.
Watch forCore FFO guidance remains at $6.75.
Also watch forCore FFO guidance is lowered below $6.75.