Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Camden Property Trust (CPT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$103.71-0.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.13 → 0.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain active share buyback program | A supporting condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Continue at-market buybacks through 2026. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced | Buybacks active (qualitative) Headlines confirm buybacks are ongoing and contributing to raised 2026 guidance, supporting the capital allocation thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CPT is a relatively low-risk real estate business with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is improving, but its current state is uncertain because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it clearly.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to CPT being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.91 premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative at -0.62, while priced-in fragility is low; together, these signals suggest valuation is not clearly supported by a large cushion against weaker results.
Near term, management has raised the midpoint of 2026 EPS guidance while keeping Core FFO guidance unchanged, and company momentum improved substantially. Guidance updates and the litigation settlement are being managed, though management execution is rated volatile and recent earnings surprises have been erratic, making the next report worth watching.
Over the next year, a shift to Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while a guidance reduction would be a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also depends on sector peers maintaining their performance and on CPT sustaining its guidance progress; cracks among sector bellwethers could remove a source of support.
CPT's business evidence is solid, but the expensive overall valuation and uncertain execution make the 1-to-3-year thesis conditional on continued guidance delivery and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.17 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.13 in Q2 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.17 USD_PER_SHARE. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Jul 31, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Earnings Guidance Camden updated its earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market and general economic conditions, and provided guidance for third quarter 2026 as detailed below.” “Earnings Guidance Camden provided initial earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market and general economic conditions, and provided guidance for first quarter 2026 as detailed below.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net income stabilizes above $42M quarterly | A primary condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=42.4 million USD quarterly. | Intact | Net income falls below $42M in any quarter | Net income: $18.79M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=42.4 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 202618,790,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Apartment market demand remains stable or improves | A supporting condition in Camden Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving apartment market through 2026. | Intact | Apartment market weakens causing earnings guidance cuts | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Earnings Guidance Camden updated its earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market and general economic conditions, and provided guidance for third quarter 2026 as detailed below.” “Earnings Guidance Camden provided initial earnings guidance for 2026 based on its current and expected views of the apartment market and general economic conditions, and provided guidance for first quarter 2026 as detailed below.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.79 → $0.89 · observed estimates
$1.58B → $1.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.79 | $1,581,176,570 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.21 | $1,582,986,220 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.79 | $1,582,212,930 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.21 | $1,582,245,776 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.61 | $1,563,953,750 | 2 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.61 | $1,563,953,750 | 2 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.61 | $1,563,953,750 | 2 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.21 | $1,575,356,158 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.16 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.15 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.15 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.15 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.15 | $1,558,102,622 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,272 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.04 | $1,558,612,921 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.04 | $1,558,398,121 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.04 | $1,558,384,521 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.04 | $1,558,385,971 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.17 | $1,558,385,971 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.17 | $1,558,385,971 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.17 | $1,558,385,971 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.17 | $1,559,440,286 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.13 | $1,559,520,971 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.13 | $1,559,520,971 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.13 | $1,559,520,971 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.13 | $1,559,520,971 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.13 | $1,558,110,922 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.13 | $1,558,111,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.13 | $1,558,311,572 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.00 | $1,558,134,630 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.89 | $1,557,480,925 | 5 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.