California Resources Corporation (CRC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.22+1.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion for 2026: Q2 EBITDA margin 49.5% vs target $1.4B FY26.
California Resources plans to increase drilling in the second half of 2026. It aims for adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2026. Capital investments are maintained within $520-$560 million. These targets show progress despite recent market weakness.
The company is loss-making and has volatile management. Recent earnings missed expectations and momentum fell sharply. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure cash flow and growth.
The market price is about 21% below our valuation and reflects roughly 20% revenue growth. Our valuation is below the Street median, indicating cautious market expectations. We differ slightly on growth sustainability and capital discipline.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDAX falls below $1.4 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Capital investments exceed $560 million or fall below $520 million in FY26
No increase in drilling activity in second half of 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the energy sector. The current thesis state reflects a medium confidence level due to recent earnings misses and volatile management, but there are potential upsides if sector conditions improve.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, given the expensive valuation compared to peers and the recent weak performance. The expectations gap suggests that investors are cautious but not overly pessimistic about CRC's future.
Management is focused on increasing drilling activity and maintaining disciplined capital investments, which could improve operational efficiency. However, the near-term risk of missing earnings remains significant, with a 45% probability of such an event.
The long-term thesis hinges on inflation trends and sector performance, particularly if major companies in the energy sector continue to exceed earnings expectations. Additionally, any negative guidance cuts from management could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The recent acquisition of Crimson for $63 million supports increased drilling activity and oil development. This move enhances CRC's operational capacity in a supportive sector backdrop. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, CRC's performance will depend on its ability to execute on management priorities and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.