Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
California Resources Corporation (CRC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.60-5.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.03 → 3.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion for 2026 | It aims for adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDAX falls below $1.4 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector company with a growth-through-drilling thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder, because earnings quality is loss-making and recent performance is weak. The long-term thesis state is watch, with medium confidence, despite management delivering on several stated priorities.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CRC is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a substantial peer premium. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the setup is justified and has low fragility, rather than reflecting the full combination of weak results, expensive valuation, and sector turbulence.
Near term, three recent earnings misses and a record of consecutive misses leave results at risk, and another guidance cut would add a meaningful concern. Over the multi-year view, drilling activity and capital investment are increasing, adjusted EBITDAX rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management has reaffirmed its annual investment range and raised its guidance midpoint.
The thesis depends on CRC sustaining drilling execution and delivering its 2026 adjusted EBITDAX and capital investment plans. Near term, a guidance cut or more earnings misses could weaken the operating case, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as COP, EOG, and OXY would support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CRC has credible execution evidence in drilling and investment plans, but weak recent results and repeated misses make the thesis unresolved. The key test is whether operating progress continues without further guidance weakness. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital investments are maintained within $520-$560 million. |
| Intact |
| Capital investments exceed $560 million or fall below $520 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $149M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: within $520-$560 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026149,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increased drilling activity in second half of 2026 | California Resources plans to increase drilling in the second half of 2026. | Improving | No increase in drilling activity in second half of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.67 → $3.73 · observed estimates
$3.67B → $3.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.84 | $3,591,023,070 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.08 | $3,639,561,300 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.67 | $3,665,059,242 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.88 | $3,660,224,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.88 | $3,660,224,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.95 | $3,670,124,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.95 | $3,670,124,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.95 | $3,670,124,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.00 | $3,667,424,800 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.15 | $3,672,140,728 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.11 | $3,667,497,444 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.11 | $3,667,497,444 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.11 | $3,667,497,444 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.18 | $3,708,679,263 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.18 | $3,708,679,263 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.17 | $3,708,861,081 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.11 | $3,715,356,082 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.11 | $3,715,356,082 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.11 | $3,715,356,082 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.11 | $3,715,356,082 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.04 | $3,671,674,264 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.04 | $3,671,674,264 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.01 | $3,651,419,719 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.01 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.01 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.01 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.01 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.98 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.03 | $3,639,927,251 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.97 | $3,617,199,978 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.97 | $3,617,199,978 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.88 | $3,612,702,315 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.80 | $3,608,102,315 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.73 | $3,630,102,315 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.82 | $3,635,738,679 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.82 | $3,635,738,679 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.66 | $3,618,110,875 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.66 | $3,618,110,875 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.66 | $3,618,110,875 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.66 | $3,652,474,512 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.66 | $3,652,474,512 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.61 | $3,643,101,784 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.73 | $3,627,807,636 | 7 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.