California Resources Corporation (CRC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.22+1.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, California Resources Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial condition and results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Why it matters: This shows a drop in efficiency. It may affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDAX was less than $285 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDAX was more than $325 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows CRC's commitment to disciplined spending.
Supportive ifTotal capital investments are from $520 million to $560 million.
Worry ifTotal capital investments are more than $560 million.
Why it matters: Changes in oil prices can impact production and financial results.
Worry ifIf oil prices stay steady or rise, production may recover above 155 MBoe/d.
Less concerning ifOil prices decline further, causing production to drop below 149 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CRC meets its adjusted EBITDAX goals and production plans.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDAX is $370 million or more. This supports the company's growth plans.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDAX is less than $370 million. This shows challenges in meeting growth goals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,970 loss on $10,000 · 29.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows smart spending. It helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 capital investments were between $150 million and $170 million.
Worry ifQ3 capital investments were less than $150 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the EBITDAX target of $1,400-$1,500 million is important for growth. It boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAX for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds the midpoint of the guidance range.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAX falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Why it matters: Hitting production goals is key for making money. It impacts the company's overall success.
Supportive ifReported net production for Q2 2026 falls within the target range of 149-155 MBoe/d.
Worry ifNet production for Q2 2026 falls below 149 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: Successful buybacks show trust in the company's money situation. They can raise shareholder value.
Supportive ifThere will be announcements of share buybacks after the notes offering is complete.
Worry ifThere will be no share buyback announcements or failed buybacks after the offering.
Why it matters: More drilling could raise production and revenue. This supports the company's growth goals.
Supportive ifProduction rates are rising. They aim for 149-155 MBoe/d in 2026.
Worry ifIf production rates do not improve or fall, it shows drilling is not effective.
Why it matters: Changes in the credit agreement may affect CRC's money management. This is key for handling debt and running operations.
Watch forNew terms in the credit agreement improve borrowing conditions or reduce costs.
Also watch forNew terms worsen borrowing conditions or increase costs.
Why it matters: This payment shows CRC cares about giving value to shareholders. This is after recent losses.
Supportive ifThe dividend payment was made on September 18, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment was delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Achieving this EBITDAX range is crucial for financial health and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAX results fall within the range of $970-$1,070 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAX results are less than $970 million.
Why it matters: More drilling could mean more production. This may lead to better financial results.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a seven rig program in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in drilling activity or a reduction in planned rigs for H2 2026.
Why it matters: Falling production may show problems. It could hurt revenue.
Worry ifQ3 net production reported below 151 MBoe/d.
Less concerning ifQ3 net production reported above 154 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could help CRC improve its performance. This would signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: How well the buyback works shows management's confidence in the company's value and health.
Supportive ifShare price stabilizes or goes up after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifIf share price keeps falling despite the buyback, it shows deeper issues.