Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.48-8.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.48 → 1.45 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRCL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
successful capital raises and token sales | New partnerships and token sales support growth. | Improving | failure to secure further capital if needed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a profitable one, with a long-term thesis tied to expanding USDC use and its partner network. Management is delivering on adoption and investment priorities, but the thesis state is watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
CRCL trades at a substantial premium to peers, which the evidence links to expectations of a durable premium. The expectations gap is small, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain; the evidence does not show high fragility.
Near-term performance may remain uneven: recent results are weak relative to the industry cohort, and earnings surprises have been erratic, despite a low stated miss probability. Over the multi-year view, USDC circulation has grown year over year and partnerships are expanding; margins have exceeded the original range, while higher operating expenses reflect continued investment.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued USDC adoption, ecosystem partnerships, and the ability to sustain strong margins while investing in products and infrastructure. Near term, a guidance reversal after a recent increase could damage credibility, while falling rates could weigh on the sector; continued strength from financial-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
CRCL has evidence of ecosystem growth and execution on several priorities, but weak recent performance, elevated risk, and a peer valuation premium leave the 1-to-3-year thesis dependent on sustained growth and steadier results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Circle Internet Group leads in stablecoin and blockchain infrastructure. |
| Intact |
| significant loss of market share or key partnerships |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
progress toward profitability | A primary condition in Circle Internet Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is positive net income or EPS >= $0.82. | Improving | EPS remains below $0.50 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.84 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: positive net income or EPS >= $0.82. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.84 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
total revenue growth | A primary condition in Circle Internet Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=31.5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.60 → $1.45 · observed estimates
$4.19B → $3.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.60 | $4,190,000,000 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.49 | $4,057,759,960 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.49 | $4,057,759,960 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.60 | $4,190,000,000 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.49 | $4,057,759,960 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $4,057,759,960 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.61 | $4,190,000,000 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.61 | $4,190,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.61 | $4,190,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $3,979,973,680 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.50 | $3,979,973,680 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.50 | $3,979,973,680 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.42 | $3,933,171,650 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.42 | $3,933,171,650 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.41 | $3,807,437,410 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.41 | $3,807,437,410 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.41 | $3,807,437,410 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.45 | $3,783,283,200 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.39 | $3,736,908,200 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.39 | $3,736,908,200 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.43 | $3,990,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.46 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.46 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.46 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.47 | $3,790,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.49 | $3,800,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.49 | $3,800,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.49 | $3,800,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.49 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.47 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.47 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.47 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.47 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.47 | $3,730,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.48 | $3,760,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.48 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.48 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.48 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.48 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.36 | $3,810,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.37 | $3,810,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.37 | $3,800,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.37 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.37 | $3,770,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.45 | $3,830,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.45 | $3,830,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.45 | $3,830,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.45 | $3,830,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.45 | $3,830,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.