Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.48-8.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRCL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-25
CFO — Jeremy Fox-Geen: The CFO is resigning with a transition period, representing a genuine departure of a senior executive without an immediate named successor.
Why it matters: The launch puts Arc's planned tools in public use. Active builders and real transactions would show that partners are moving beyond plans.
Supportive ifCircle confirms the public mainnet is live and reports active builders or transactions on Arc.
Worry ifCircle reports a launch delay, or the network launches with no active builders or transactions.
Why it matters: Circle raised its full-year margin range to 41.7%–43.7%. A Q3 result in that range would support the higher goal.
Supportive ifQ3 RLDC margin is at least 41.7%, the low end of the updated full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 RLDC margin falls below 41.7%.
Why it matters: USDC growth drives reserve income. Q2 circulation grew 19% year over year, down from 28% in Q1.
Supportive ifQ3 ending USDC circulation is above the year-earlier level by more than 19%.
Worry ifQ3 ending USDC circulation growth is 19% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Jeremy Fox-Geen plans to leave by the end of December 2026 unless a successor starts sooner. A named successor would clarify the handoff.
Watch forCircle names a new CFO before December 31, 2026, and confirms the transition plan.
Also watch forCircle has not named a successor by December 31, 2026, or reports a longer gap.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$409 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $929 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,556 loss on $10,000 · 55.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reserve income grew 5% in Q2 as average USDC rose, but the reserve return rate fell by 66 basis points. Lower returns can limit income growth.
Worry ifQ3 reserve income grows less than 5% year over year, or the reserve return rate falls below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 reserve income grows at least 5% year over year and the reserve return rate is at least 3.5%.