CrowdStrike (CRWD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-08
$194.62-2.39%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $194.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $195 CRWD trades at 47× p/e, in line with its 47× p/e peer median — but our blended $507 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $169–$805. Not investment advice.
$169.00 – $805.00 (median $710.00) · 40 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $710.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $232.98 | 47.4 | 4.92 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $152.74 | 27.1 | 5.63 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $194.62 | 47.4 | 4.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $92.37 | 4.7 | 19.75 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $605.35 | 147.3 | 4.11 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $210.99 | 47.4 | 4.46 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $36.54 | 47.4 | 0.77 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $232.30 | 27.1 | 8.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $30.53 | 47.4 | 0.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $161.82 | 4.7 | 34.60 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $94.95 | 147.3 | 0.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $307.21 | 27.1 | 11.33 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $214.00 | 4.7 | 45.76 | guidance | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $27.62 | 147.3 | 0.19 | Analyst | low |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.