Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$217.20-9.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.60 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRWD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $20 billion annual recurring revenue | A primary condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is reach 20 billion USD ARR. | Intact | ARR growth stalls or fails to approach $20 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth cybersecurity business whose multi-year view depends on continued expansion and better profitability. Management is on track against its stated growth and cash-flow priorities, but recent signals have turned cautious.
CRWD is expensive versus peers, with valuation relying in part on future growth opportunities. The expectations gap is high, but the evidence does not show a broad stack of valuation, business, and market fragility.
Near term, revenue and recurring revenue are growing, guidance has been raised, and operating losses have narrowed as cash from operations increased. However, a recent earnings miss and weakening company momentum leave execution risk elevated; the evidence also notes recent misses across the company and its peers.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued progress toward the $20 billion annual recurring revenue ambition, higher revenue, and sustained improvement in profitability and cash flow. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while easing rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
The business shows real growth and improving financial measures, but the recent shift to a cautious signal and expensive valuation make execution the central question over the next one to three years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Mythos moment translated into mass-market acceptance that AI adoption needs security, and that's CrowdStrike.” “Given our strong Q2 results and record Q3 pipeline, we are raising our full-year fiscal 2027 net new ARR growth outlook to 34% at the midpoint, positioning us for continued durable, profitable growth."”
Operating losses shrink toward -$30.6 million | Profit losses shrink steadily. | Intact | operating income worse than -30.6 million USD in FY27 Q1 | Operating income: $-33.232M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= -30.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 2026-33,232,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 25% year over year | A primary condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 25% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 25.83% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 202625.830402 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $1.5 billion share repurchase program | A supporting condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is authorize and execute $1.5 billion buyback. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Mythos moment translated into mass-market acceptance that AI adoption needs security, and that's CrowdStrike.” “Given our strong Q2 results and record Q3 pipeline, we are raising our full-year fiscal 2027 net new ARR growth outlook to 34% at the midpoint, positioning us for continued durable, profitable growth."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.56 → $1.60 · observed estimates
$7.24B → $7.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,474 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,474 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,474 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,474 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,475 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,475 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.56 | $7,241,998,475 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.56 | $7,237,063,420 | 50 / 51 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.56 | $7,237,063,420 | 50 / 51 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.56 | $7,240,934,677 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.56 | $7,243,015,325 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.56 | $7,243,171,412 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.56 | $7,243,172,611 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.56 | $7,244,485,037 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.58 | $7,333,734,071 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.58 | $7,333,734,071 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.59 | $7,332,619,314 | 26 / 37 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.59 | $7,332,619,314 | 26 / 37 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.59 | $7,335,579,163 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.59 | $7,335,579,163 | 26 / 39 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.59 | $7,351,336,822 | 26 / 39 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.60 | $7,358,820,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.60 | $7,361,712,086 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.60 | $7,367,193,353 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.60 | $7,367,193,353 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.60 | $7,368,132,047 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.60 | $7,368,130,614 | 26 / 38 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.60 | $7,368,130,614 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.60 | $7,368,130,618 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.60 | $7,368,085,720 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.60 | $7,368,085,720 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.60 | $7,368,085,720 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.60 | $7,371,490,070 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,530 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,530 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,532 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,532 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,532 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.60 | $7,371,911,532 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.60 | $7,368,399,522 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.60 | $7,368,399,523 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.60 | $7,368,399,523 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.60 | $7,368,399,523 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,532 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,528 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,528 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,528 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,528 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.60 | $7,368,077,528 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.60 | $7,373,424,176 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.60 | $7,373,424,176 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.60 | $7,381,009,466 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.60 | $7,381,009,466 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.60 | $7,381,009,466 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.60 | $7,381,009,466 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.60 | $7,381,009,466 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,730 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,726 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,758 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,758 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,758 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.60 | $7,381,008,758 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.60 | $7,381,012,019 | 27 / 38 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.60 | $7,381,011,050 | 27 / 38 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 41 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
7 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 1, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.