CrowdStrike (CRWD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$213.10-0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRWD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 26, 2026, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Why it matters: More people using modules means strong customer interest. It also shows the product's value.
Supportive ifModule use is over 51% for six or more modules.
Worry ifModule adoption rates fall below 50% for six or more modules.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if CrowdStrike can keep its strong growth momentum. A strong outlook would support confidence in its growth strategy.
Supportive ifAnnual recurring revenue growth is over 27.7% compared to last year.
Worry ifAnnual recurring revenue growth is under 27.7% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Details about the CEO's pay based on performance may show how management supports growth goals.
Watch forClear details on the CEO's incentive plan tied to specific growth metrics.
Also watch forLack of clarity or no updates on the CEO's incentive plan.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback can show how much management believes in the stock.
Supportive ifNews about more share buybacks or a bigger buyback plan.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,718 loss on $10,000 · 37.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The share repurchase could signal management's confidence in the stock and support share price.
Watch forThe share price goes up a lot after the repurchase program is announced.
Also watch forShare price declines or remains stagnant despite the repurchase program.
Why it matters: Falling short of this revenue target could indicate slower growth and market challenges.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q2 FY27 reported below $1.36 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue for Q2 FY27 reported above $1.37 billion.
Why it matters: If this number is low, it may mean less profit. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 non-GAAP net income per share reported below $1.06.
Less concerning ifQ2 FY27 non-GAAP net income per share reported above $1.07.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well CrowdStrike is managing costs while growing. Strong results would confirm operational efficiency.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP income from operations is more than $345 million.
Worry ifNon-GAAP income from operations is less than $308 million.
Why it matters: Linking CEO pay to growth can lead to better results and more value for shareholders.
Supportive ifThey publicly announced new pay tied to better stock performance.
Worry ifThere are no updates on linking CEO pay to company growth.
Why it matters: Confirmation of the 34% growth guidance would show strong momentum in ARR growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net new ARR growth meets or exceeds 34% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 net new ARR growth falls below 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The stock split could affect investor sentiment and trading volume. This will show how the market reacts to the split.
Watch forShare price rises above $400 post-split adjustment.
Also watch forShare price falls below $350 post-split adjustment.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding revenue guidance shows CrowdStrike's growth momentum is strong. This supports their goal of $20 billion ARR.
Supportive ifQ2 FY27 total revenue reported between $1,436.0 million and $1,442.0 million.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 total revenue reported below $1,436.0 million.
Why it matters: New AI partnerships can improve CrowdStrike's market position and products. This can lead to growth.
Supportive ifAt least one new AI partnership will be announced next quarter.
Worry ifNo new AI partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows continued strong growth and aligns with management's revenue goals.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported for Q3 is $1.52 billion or higher.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported for Q3 is below $1.52 billion.
Why it matters: More buybacks show trust in the company's value and a promise to return cash.
Supportive ifCrowdStrike plans big share buybacks with the new $500 million approval.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks are planned with the new approval.
Why it matters: High cash flow helps keep investments going and supports stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $530 million for Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $530 million for Q3.