CrowdStrike (CRWD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$241.00-1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 101.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 28.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
CRWD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 26, 2026, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Why it matters: Customers who use more modules can help increase sales across the customer base.
Supportive ifThe next report shows adoption above 51% for six or more modules, 35% for seven or more, or 26% for eight or more.
Worry ifAll three adoption rates stay flat or fall from 51%, 35%, and 26%.
Why it matters: The next report will test Q3 guidance and the raised FY27 growth plan.
Watch forThe December 1 report shows ARR and revenue at or above the low ends of Q3 guidance, with FY27 ARR growth guidance at or above 34%.
Also watch forThe December 1 report shows ARR or revenue below Q3 guidance, or cuts FY27 ARR growth guidance below 34%.
Why it matters: Falcon Flex ARR grew 101% in Q2. Continued fast growth would show customers are using the wider platform.
Supportive ifThe next earnings report shows Falcon Flex ending ARR growth above 101% year over year.
Worry ifFalcon Flex ending ARR growth falls below 101% year over year.
Why it matters: Net new ARR hit a record $333 million in Q2. Another gain would support the raised growth plan.
Supportive ifOn December 1, Q3 net new ARR is above $333 million, and FY27 net new ARR growth guidance stays at or above 34%.
Worry ifQ3 net new ARR is below $333 million, or CrowdStrike cuts FY27 net new ARR growth guidance below 34%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $521 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,718 loss on $10,000 · 37.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow reached a record $377 million. A lower result would weaken the cash flow trend.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is below $377 million, the Q2 record.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow is at or above $377 million.
Why it matters: The Q2 release set Q3 ARR guidance near $6.19 billion. A miss would weaken the growth case.
Worry ifQ3 ending ARR is below $6.184 billion, the low end of the company’s guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 ending ARR is at or above $6.184 billion, and FY27 ARR guidance stays within or above its current range.