Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-25 · fmp
Cisco (CSCO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$103.61+0.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.55 → 5.60 EPS · FY ending Jul 25, 2028 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI-related revenue grows significantly, supporting overall growth | A supporting condition in Cisco's published investment case. The stated target is AI revenue grows to ~$9B in FY26. | Intact | AI revenue growth stalls or declines in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-25 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
Cisco is a large technology business with a growth-and-capital-returns thesis, not a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though the evidence on management execution and earnings quality is mixed to neutral.
The valuation evidence says Cisco is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning market expectations sit somewhat above the model’s view. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and fragility low, so the snapshot does not point to a strongly stretched setup.
Near-term results have been strong: FY 2026 revenue rose 12% and Q4 revenue rose 18%, with recent earnings beats also recorded. Cisco reported AI infrastructure orders and revenue, but momentum has fallen, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk; the evidence on durable profitability is less clear.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on guidance holding and on Cisco turning AI infrastructure orders into sustained revenue. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance or continued declines in momentum would challenge the multi-year view.
For a 1 to 3 year view, strong recent results and AI activity support an intact thesis, but weaker momentum and uncertainty around durable profitability remain important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cisco grows revenue about 12% yearly, hitting $62.9B in fiscal 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $4.00 in fiscal 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 34.2% in fiscal 2026 | Profit margins stay strong near 34%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 32% in fiscal 2026 | Operating margin: 24.72% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ≈34.2%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202624.715975 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $62.9 billion in fiscal 2026 | Cisco grows revenue about 12% yearly, hitting $62.9B in fiscal 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $60B in fiscal 2026 | Revenue: $17.252B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ≈$62.89B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 202617,252,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.27 → $5.60 · observed estimates
$73.45B → $78.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.27 | $73,447,141,527 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.60 | $78,249,901,749 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.60 | $78,249,901,749 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.60 | $78,249,996,987 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.60 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.60 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.59 | $78,249,996,987 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.60 | $78,313,042,579 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.60 | $78,313,042,579 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.60 | $78,313,042,579 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.60 | $78,313,042,579 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.60 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.60 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.60 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.60 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.60 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.59 | $78,313,063,570 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.59 | $78,313,065,477 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.59 | $78,313,065,477 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.59 | $78,313,065,477 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.59 | $78,313,065,477 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.59 | $78,313,065,477 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.59 | $78,312,929,114 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.54 | $78,312,929,114 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.54 | $78,312,929,114 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.54 | $77,868,687,643 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,568 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,568 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,568 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,568 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,568 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,923 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.55 | $77,964,974,923 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.55 | $77,972,229,441 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.55 | $77,989,865,804 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.55 | $77,989,879,791 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.60 | $78,542,406,756 | 16 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.