Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CoStar Group (CSGP)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$32.05-1.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.72 → 1.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSGP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand adjusted EBITDA to $780M-$820M in 2026 | Profit expands with adjusted EBITDA rising to around $800 million. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $700M in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and margin-expansion business, with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The thesis has shifted from fragile to robust as results recovered, but its current state remains watch because risk is elevated and valuation is expensive.
CSGP is valued at a 1.42 premium versus peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is 0.39, while the evidence characterizes the priced-in setup as unjustified but with low fragility, so valuation is a concern without a broader signal of concentrated fragility.
Near term, recent results and management execution support continued revenue growth and margin expansion: revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose across the supplied 2026 quarters, and management’s cost-savings priority is on track. Guidance was reaffirmed in July and credibility improved, but a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk; the near-term miss risk is described as low, though recent history and peer misses warrant attention.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth from platform expansion and new products, and on delivering the 2028 adjusted EBITDA target. Fed rate cuts could help the sector, while weaker results or guidance from major real estate peers could remove that support; AI growth is a stated priority, but its financial contribution is not isolated in the evidence.
The multi-year view has better operating evidence than it did several months ago, but expensive valuation and elevated risks leave execution and sector conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CoStar Group's published investment case. The stated target is $3.78B to $3.82B. |
| Under Pressure |
| full-year 2026 revenue falls below $3.5B |
Revenue: $952M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $3.78B to $3.82B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026952,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $800M acquisition of Zonda in 2026 | The acquisition of Zonda for $800 million broadens market reach in homebuilding. | Improving | Zonda acquisition fails to close or integration stalls beyond 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.78 → $1.76 · observed estimates
$4.27B → $4.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.78 | $4,268,317,930 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.78 | $4,266,979,840 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.78 | $4,264,747,134 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.78 | $4,266,979,840 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.78 | $4,266,979,840 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.76 | $4,227,406,477 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.78 | $4,269,828,830 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.78 | $4,269,828,830 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.71 | $4,134,044,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.72 | $4,140,350,970 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.72 | $4,126,222,400 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.73 | $4,126,203,350 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.73 | $4,126,203,350 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.73 | $4,126,203,350 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.71 | $4,119,209,831 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.71 | $4,119,156,506 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.71 | $4,119,156,506 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.71 | $4,119,156,506 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.71 | $4,119,156,506 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.71 | $4,137,904,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.71 | $4,137,904,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.71 | $4,137,904,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.71 | $4,137,904,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.71 | $4,147,454,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.71 | $4,147,454,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.71 | $4,147,454,832 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.71 | $4,154,292,964 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.71 | $4,154,292,964 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.71 | $4,154,292,964 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.71 | $4,154,292,964 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.72 | $4,164,512,963 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.72 | $4,166,509,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.72 | $4,166,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.72 | $4,166,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.72 | $4,166,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.72 | $4,165,484,228 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.72 | $4,163,934,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.72 | $4,163,934,229 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.72 | $4,161,749,832 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.72 | $4,161,749,832 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.72 | $4,161,749,832 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.72 | $4,161,750,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.72 | $4,161,750,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.72 | $4,161,750,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.72 | $4,161,750,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.72 | $4,161,775,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.72 | $4,161,775,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.72 | $4,161,775,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.72 | $4,159,225,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.72 | $4,159,225,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.72 | $4,166,255,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.72 | $4,166,255,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.72 | $4,166,255,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.72 | $4,166,255,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.72 | $4,166,255,612 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.74 | $4,177,720,258 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.76 | $4,171,276,834 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.76 | $4,181,964,000 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.