CoStar Group (CSGP)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.91-2.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $3.78B to $3.82B: FY26 guidance $3.71B-$3.75B vs target $3.78B-$3.82B.
CoStar Group grows revenue about 17% to $3.8 billion in 2026. Profit expands with adjusted EBITDA rising to around $800 million. The acquisition of Zonda for $800 million broadens market reach in homebuilding. Recent earnings beat and stable management support growth.
The recent sharp share price drop signals risk. Growth could slow below analyst expectations. Integration of Zonda may face delays or fail to add value. Profit margins might compress under market headwinds.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $29, reflecting roughly 16% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is below the Street median, indicating some caution versus more optimistic views.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $700M in 2026
Expand Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026 to a range of $780 million to $820 million, reflecting margin expansion and profitability improvement.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CSGP represents a growth-oriented investment with a focus on expanding revenue and profitability. The current thesis is cautious due to elevated risks and an expensive valuation compared to peers.
The market currently assumes a high valuation for CSGP, which is considered expensive relative to its peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential challenges ahead.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and EBITDA growth targets, showing strong execution on its priorities. However, the recent financial performance has lagged behind industry peers, which could pose risks in the near term.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets, as well as external factors like interest rate changes and performance of sector bellwethers. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the revenue target for 2026. However, weak guidance raises concerns about achieving the higher revenue goal.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $442M in 2025 to $184M in 2026-Q2 alone, with full year 2026 guidance raised to $780M-$820M. The trajectory shows strong profitability expansion and management is delivering on this priority.
“The Company is affirming its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 in a range of $780 million to $820 million”
“The Company is increasing its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to a range of $780 million to $820 million”
“The Company is affirming the guidance from our January 7, 2026 press release for Adjusted EBITDA to range from $740 million to $800 million”
Breaks if: full-year 2026 revenue falls below $3.5B
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue growth in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion, representing approximately 17% year-over-year growth.
Breaks if: Zonda acquisition fails to close or integration stalls beyond 2026
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CSGP's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.