CoStar Group (CSGP)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.91-2.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSGP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
CSGP — officer change
Dated 2026-06-25
Approval of a new employee stock purchase plan.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance shows CoStar's growth strategy is on track. It reflects demand for their services.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported between $935 million and $945 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $935 million.
Why it matters: High engagement would show that AI-driven platforms work well and help future growth.
Watch forUser engagement metrics show big increases. This means many users are adopting the AI features.
Also watch forUser engagement metrics go down or stay the same. This suggests low interest in the new features.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would expand CoStar's market presence and enhance growth potential.
Supportive ifThe acquisition has closed. This confirms it is now part of CoStar's operations.
Worry ifThere is a delay or cancellation of the acquisition. This shows possible integration issues.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $190 million. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $190 million. This may mean there are operational problems.
Why it matters: More traffic from AI features could increase engagement. This may also boost revenue for CoStar.
Supportive ifOrganic traffic grew more than 119% from last year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOrganic traffic growth falls below 100% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or growing net new bookings shows strong demand for CoStar's services. This could boost future revenue.
Supportive ifNet new bookings reported above $67 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet new bookings reported below $67 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Traffic growth shows strong customer interest and good new AI features. This helps revenue.
Supportive ifHomes.com has organic traffic growth of over 119% compared to last year.
Worry ifHomes.com has organic traffic growth below 119% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows the company can keep growing. It shows demand for CoStar's services.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $935 million to $945 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $935 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth shows CoStar is on track to reach its 2026 revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 13% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 10% YoY.
Why it matters: This range shows CoStar is growing its profits and hitting its goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls within the range of $190 million to $210 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is below $180 million.
Why it matters: More engagement shows CoStar's AI projects are working and helping growth.
Supportive ifUser engagement numbers are up a lot compared to past quarters.
Worry ifUser engagement numbers drop or stay the same compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: Good integration can help CoStar's residential segment. This can increase profits.
Supportive ifPositive news on Zonda's integration and its role in revenue growth.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems or delays in Zonda's integration. This affects revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $460 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,966 loss on $10,000 · 69.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.