Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.20-4.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSTL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income moves toward positive territory | The company aims to improve its operating income and net income. | Improving | Net loss worsens beyond -$14.52 million over next year | Net income: $-2.06M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss less negative than -$14.52 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-2,060,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business that is still loss-making, with a possible path toward sustained operating improvement. The long-term thesis is supported by growing core test volumes and higher revenue guidance, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CSTL is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also indicates a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in fragility is low, so the snapshot does not show that the thesis depends on unusually high expectations.
Near term, revenue guidance has risen and core test volumes have grown more than 30% year over year in each of the first two quarters of 2026. Adjusted EBITDA moved from a loss in Q1 to a profit in Q2, but full-year profitability still depends on the expected Q3 and Q4 results. Erratic earnings surprises and a weakening trend in surprises are risks despite the recent earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued volume growth and progress toward positive Adjusted EBITDA. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage confidence, while weaker job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, CSTL has a credible growth and operating-improvement case, but it remains a watch-stage thesis because recent financial performance is weak and profitability is not yet established. The key test is whether volume growth and improved margins continue without a reversal in guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims to improve its operating income and net income. |
| Intact |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$18.41 million over next year |
Operating income: $-3.07M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$18.41 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-3,070,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
2026 revenue reaches at least $345 million | A primary condition in Castle Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $345 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $345 million in 2026 | Revenue: $103.546M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $345 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026103,546,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.96 → $-0.93 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.96 | $392,905,330 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.96 | $392,916,356 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.96 | $392,916,356 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.96 | $392,916,356 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.01 | $401,360,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.02 | $409,097,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.02 | $409,097,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.99 | $409,097,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.99 | $409,097,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.99 | $409,097,780 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.01 | $401,693,275 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.99 | $410,335,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.94 | $412,796,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.91 | $413,738,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.91 | $413,739,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.91 | $413,763,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.93 | $421,211,556 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.