Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.75+1.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSTL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSTL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Castle Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained or incorporated in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
Why it matters: A study found more patients received treatment that matched their test results after AdvanceAD-Tx. Wider use would show that this evidence matters in care.
Supportive ifA new study or company update reports that more clinics use AdvanceAD-Tx or more patients are tested.
Worry ifA new study fails to show a gain in treatment choices, or Castle reports no growth in test use.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year outlook after strong first-half growth. Q3 results will show whether that pace continues.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Castle reports Q3 revenue and keeps its $365–375 million 2026 outlook or raises it.
Worry ifCastle cuts its $365–375 million outlook or reports revenue that makes the range hard to reach.
Why it matters: DecisionDx-SCC reports fell year over year in both reported 2026 quarters. More decline would add pressure as core tests grow.
Worry ifQ3 DecisionDx-SCC test reports fall below the same quarter in 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 DecisionDx-SCC test reports match or exceed the same quarter in 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $554 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,783 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.