Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.91+0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSTL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSTL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Castle Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained or incorporated in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This is key for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than -$15M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income worsens to more than -$18M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New evidence would support the test's adoption and potential revenue growth. It shows Castle's commitment to innovation.
Supportive ifA study shows the AdvanceAD-Tx test has a big clinical impact.
Worry ifThere is no new important clinical evidence for the AdvanceAD-Tx test.
Why it matters: Earnings results show trends in revenue, operating income, and net income. They help assess performance.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth and improved income metrics.
Also watch forEarnings results show more drops in revenue and income metrics.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would confirm strong growth momentum and support the raised guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at or above $100 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $90 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,783 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive net income would be a big turnaround for the company. It is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifNet income turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income remains negative, worsening from -$14.52M in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm the strength of Castle's core tests. It is crucial for revenue generation and market position.
Supportive ifCore test report volumes increase by 30% or more year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore test report volumes grow less than 30% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Castle Biosciences. A strong sector can lift individual companies.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a year-over-year increase above 10%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down and is now below 10%.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. This is true even with recent revenue drops.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to $355M or higher.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers 2026 revenue guidance to below $345M.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is confirmed, it shows strong growth. This shows management trusts their core tests and business.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 revenue guidance is still $365-375 million for the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance to $365-375 million.