Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.21-21.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.64 → 3.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex within $25-$30 million in FY26 | Capital spending is controlled between $25 and $30 million. | Intact | Capex exceeds $30 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $5.327M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25-$30 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20265,327,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CSV is an acquisition-led business with a growth thesis that depends on continued execution. Its long-term thesis is currently intact because recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though confidence has fallen from high to medium and risks are elevated.
The evidence describes CSV as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline. Pricing is tagged as justified, not fragile, because weak execution quality is not paired with the full mix of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 42% estimated miss probability make the next report an important check. Management has completed one strategic acquisition and expects more activity, while 2026 capital spending guidance was cut and adjusted free cash flow guidance remains unchanged despite first-half results below the pace needed for the full-year range.
The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would signal further pressure, while sector peers’ results and guidance may indicate whether the broader tailwind persists. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on whether planned acquisitions support growth without weakening cash generation or capital discipline.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CSV has a still-intact but less certain thesis, supported by strong recent performance and tempered by earnings, cash-flow, and acquisition risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is expected near $3.45 to $3.55. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $3.35 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $3.35-$3.55. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow $40-$50 million in FY26 | Free cash flow aims for $40 to $50 million, supporting financial health. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $40 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $2.225M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $40-$50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20262,225,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $445 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Carriage Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$445 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $440 million in FY26 | Revenue: $102.949M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$445 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026102,949,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.76 → $3.63 · observed estimates
$0.46B → $0.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.76 | $463,668,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.76 | $463,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.75 | $462,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.75 | $462,650,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.62 | $458,954,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.76 | $463,636,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.63 | $455,063,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.64 | $454,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.63 | $453,984,800 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.