Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.92+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION . In the press release dated August 5, 2026 , Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced and commented on its financial results for its quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by this reference. The Company’s press release dated August 5, 2026 , contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a c…
Why it matters: New acquisitions can boost growth. They also support management's plan to grow market presence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new acquisition in Q3.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in Q3.
Why it matters: More funeral volume would show recovery from recent drops. It would help revenue growth.
Supportive ifJuly funeral volume trends show an increase compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifFuneral volume continues to decline or remains flat compared to prior months.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management. It supports future growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending was $20 million to $25 million in Q3.
Worry ifCapital spending over $25 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Details on this debt could clarify how Carriage Services plans to manage its capital. It may affect the company's capex discipline.
Watch forClear plans for capex spending following the debt issuance announcement.
Also watch forNo clear plans for capex spending following the debt issuance announcement.
Why it matters: Strong preneed sales growth shows good customer acquisition. It also means long-term revenue potential.
Supportive ifQ3 preneed sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 preneed sales growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth will show if the company can meet its 2026 target of $440-$450 million.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue grows year over year by more than 3%.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue declines year over year or grows less than 3%.
Why it matters: A steady margin would mean the company is controlling costs well. This is important during revenue issues.
Supportive ifOperating income margin was at or above 23%.
Worry ifThe operating income margin was less than 22%.
Why it matters: Hitting this cash flow target shows good capital management. It helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow reaches or exceeds $20 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow falls below $10 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Carriage Services. A decline may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth shows a year-over-year increase of less than 0.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth increases year-over-year by more than 0.8%.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are a key growth strategy. New deals could boost future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new acquisition in the next two quarters.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth. Missing this target may raise concerns.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reaches or exceeds $40 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $40 million.
Why it matters: Trends in death rates affect funeral services. Changes can greatly impact income.
Watch forNational death rates are going up compared to last month.
Also watch forNational mortality rates are still going down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,574 loss on $10,000 · 35.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.