Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.98+5.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION . In the press release dated November 4, 2026 , Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced and commented on its financial results for its quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by this reference. The Company’s press release dated November 4, 2026 , contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measu…
Why it matters: Management said more deals may close over the next two quarters and into 2027. The new credit line adds room to fund growth.
Supportive ifBy early 2027, the company closes at least one strategic funeral home or cemetery deal. It keeps leverage at or below 4.0x.
Worry ifNo strategic deal closes by early 2027, or leverage rises above 4.0x after a deal.
Why it matters: Q2 at-need volume fell 3.5% year over year. A deeper drop could weigh on sales, even if prices rise.
Worry ifQ3 funeral contract volume falls more than 3.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 funeral contract volume is flat or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The company kept its $40 million to $50 million goal. First-half adjusted free cash flow was $13.8 million, so the full-year result tests that plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports 2026 adjusted free cash flow of at least $40 million.
Worry ifThe company reports 2026 adjusted free cash flow below $40 million or cuts its $40 million floor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $316 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,085 loss on $10,000 · 40.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.