Coterra (CTRA)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.56-8.62%
Close 2026-05-06 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Coterra aims for $2.35 billion free cash flow in 2026. It plans to spend $2.25 billion on capital projects. The merger with Devon Energy should create $1 billion in synergies. Production guidance supports steady growth.
Earnings missed last quarter by 24%. The merger caused leadership changes. Capital spending discipline is uncertain. Market pullback pressures the stock.
The market is correcting the stock after recent earnings miss. It prices in some merger benefits but also risks from integration and capital spending.
Breaks if: Capital expenditure deviates more than 10% from $2.25 billion in 2026
Adhere to the capital expenditure guidance of $2.25 billion for 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cyclical play within the energy sector, which is currently experiencing a favorable backdrop. The thesis is in a watch state, reflecting mixed signals from management and recent performance.
The market appears to have neutral expectations regarding CTRA's valuation, with no significant premium or discount compared to peers. Investors seem to be factoring in the potential for volatility in earnings and management execution.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, as CTRA has maintained its capital expenditure and free cash flow targets. However, the company has a history of consecutive earnings misses, which could pose risks to future performance.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the outcome of the merger with Devon Energy and the company's ability to maintain guidance. Additionally, inflation trends and performance from sector leaders like COP, EOG, and OXY will be crucial for CTRA's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a key driver. Recent financial performance is below its industry peers. Management is unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has maintained its capital expenditure guidance at $2.25 billion for 2026. This reflects a consistent focus on disciplined capital investment. The trajectory is delivering as the guidance remains unchanged.
“Guidance: 'Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $2.25 billion...'”
“Guidance: 'Capital expenditures expected to be around $2.3 billion.'”
“Guidance: 'Capital expenditures guidance maintained at $2.3 billion.'”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2 billion in 2026
Aim to achieve a free cash flow target of $2.35 billion for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company expects to achieve a free cash flow of $2.35 billion for 2026. This target aligns with the company's focus on financial strength and shareholder returns. The trajectory is consistent with prior guidance.
“Guidance: 'Expect Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $2.35 billion.'”
“Guidance: 'Free Cash Flow target set at $2.35 billion.'”
Breaks if: Synergies fall short of $1 billion by end of 2026
Focus on completing the merger with Devon Energy to create a leading shale operator.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CTRA's performance will depend on management's execution and broader sector conditions. Not investment advice.