Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.78+16.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.81 → 2.81 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTRN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M in fiscal 2026 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA of $35M to $40M. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $35M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 1, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent growth story, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: management is delivering on several goals, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
CTRN is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to a re-rating expectation gap, though confidence in that assessment is low. The valuation is the main concern in what is priced in; the evidence does not show a broader stack of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulence.
Near term, management’s sales, adjusted EBITDA, and gross-margin goals show progress, including raised 2026 outlooks for sales growth and adjusted EBITDA. Recent earnings beats offer some support, but company momentum has fallen, recent performance is weak, and the CFO transition adds uncertainty. The stated near-term miss risk is low, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The near-term test is whether management avoids a guidance cut on the next call; a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the next year, continued delivery on sales growth, adjusted EBITDA, and gross margin would support the business case. Sector bellwethers such as TJX, ROST, and BURL are also swing factors: continued strong results could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CTRN’s thesis depends on sustained execution against improved 2026 goals and on whether weak relative performance improves, while its expensive valuation leaves limited comfort in the evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to expand gross margin by 1%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin expansion falls below 1.0% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 38.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 1.0% gross margin expansion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 202638.010792 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Citi Trends, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 9% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 9% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Chief Executive Officer Comments Ken Seipel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer said; “CITITRENDS delivered another strong quarter, with comparable store sales increasing 10.5% and 19.7% on a two-year basis, marking our eighth consecutive quarter of comparable store sales growth.” “ET. The online replay will follow shortly after the call and will be available for replay for one year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.38 → $2.81 · observed estimates
$0.98B → $0.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.38 | $979,944,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.38 | $979,980,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.83 | $1,015,444,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.56 | $983,894,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.56 | $983,894,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.56 | $983,894,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.81 | $988,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.