Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.16+2.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put CTRN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Apparel Retail: structurally weak cohort (structural / late-cycle), so the cyclical early-warning is suppressed.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 103% growth a year, above the roughly 13% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 30% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCTRN's growth trajectory relies on achieving 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 64.7× P/E versus a peer median of 16.3×, indicating the market prices in more growth than forecast. The premium must be earned, as expectations look full. If CTRN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a significant negative. Peer multiples imply a price about 103% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. CTRN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering CTRN (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare CTRN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Apparel Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CTRN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M in 2026
Profit growth supports adjusted EBITDA target.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026
Raised outlook not translating to share price reflects market skepticism.
Threatens: Open approximately 25 new stores and remodel 50 stores in 2026
Targeting fewer new stores than previously planned.
Threatens: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026
Guidance concerns may hinder sales growth objectives.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M in 2026
Earnings beat supports adjusted EBITDA growth target.
Advances: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth
Indicates potential for significant sales growth in footwear.
Advances: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth
Strong sales growth supports sales growth objective.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M
Adjusted EBITDA target aligns with management's goals.