Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$52.49-9.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 193.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 180.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
CTRN — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-11
CFO — Heather Plutino: The CFO is resigning for personal reasons, creating a vacancy in a critical senior executive role.
Why it matters: Management cut its new-store plan from 25 to 20, but raised its remodel plan. The year-end count will show how much of the plan was done.
Watch forThe year-end update reports about 20 new stores and at least 61 remodels, including the 51 done by Q2.
Also watch forThe year-end update reports fewer than 20 new stores or fewer than 61 remodels.
Why it matters: Comparable sales rose 10.5% in Q2, and the company raised its yearly range. A Q3 result below that pace could weaken the sales outlook.
Supportive ifThe December 1 report shows Q3 comparable sales growth of 9% or more, with the full-year range still at 9%-11%.
Worry ifThe December 1 report shows Q3 comparable sales growth below 9%. Or management lowers its 9% full-year low end.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin rose 60 basis points, despite higher fuel costs. Another gain would support the full-year plan.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin rises year over year, keeping the company on track for its 50-70 basis point full-year gain.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls year over year, or management lowers the 50 basis point full-year low end.
Why it matters: Management raised its full-year profit range after strong first-half results. Q3 results can show whether sales still turn into profit.
Supportive ifOn December 1, Q3 results keep the $38M-$42M adjusted EBITDA outlook. Year-to-date results stay within that range.
Worry ifOn December 1, management cuts the $38M low end, or year-to-date results no longer support the range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $584 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,156 loss on $10,000 · 41.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.