Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.16+2.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 102.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTRN — director transition
Dated 2026-02-20
Director — Wes Calvert: Wes Calvert departed from the Board, and Benjamin Faw was appointed as a new director.
Why it matters: Total sales growth shows how healthy the business is. Below 9% may mean a weak market.
Worry ifTotal sales growth reported below 9%.
Less concerning ifTotal sales growth reported at 9% or higher.
Why it matters: Fewer openings may mean slower growth and less market expansion.
Worry ifNew store openings reported below 15 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifNew store openings reported at 20 or more for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This sales growth shows the company's strategy works in a tough market.
Supportive ifTotal sales growth reported in the range of 9%-11% for 2026.
Worry ifTotal sales growth reported below 9%.
Why it matters: This shows good cost management. It helps with making more money overall.
Supportive ifGross margin reported to expand by 50-70 basis points in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin fails to expand or contracts in Q3.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for growth. It shows the company's expansion strategy is on track.
Supportive ifCompany opens at least 10 new stores by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 10 new stores opened by Q3 2026, indicating slower growth.
Why it matters: This range matches what management said. It shows if sales are still strong.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable store sales growth reported within the range of 9% to 11%.
Worry ifComparable store sales growth falls below 9%.
Why it matters: This shows management wants to make more money and grow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $10 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $10 million for Q3.
Why it matters: This shows the company is following its growth plan and getting bigger.
Supportive ifTotal new store openings reported at 20 by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings reported below 20 by year-end 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $491 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,981 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.