Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.84-7.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.51 → 4.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CVI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital expenditures within $200 million to $240 million for full year 2026 | It aims to keep capital spending within $200-$240 million for 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $250 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $43M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $200M to $240M total CAPEX. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 202643,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical refining business, where results can shift with industry conditions. The multi-year view is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but earnings quality is loss-making and recent performance remains weak.
CVI is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility; it flags a turbulent sector regime rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector pressure.
Near term, management has kept a steady focus on reliable operations, refining margins, and disciplined capital spending. Utilization and refining-margin measures improved in some recent comparisons, but the overall performance assessment remains weak, and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. The sector backdrop is another swing factor: continued strong results and higher guidance from MPC, VLO, and PSX would support the industry tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on whether improving margin capture and reliable operations can persist despite weak recent results and elevated risk. The evidence supports continued monitoring, not a settled long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Allocation Strategy Prioritize Sustaining Capital Investments Return Cash to Investors When Appropriate Pursue Accretive Acquisition and Investment Opportunities Maintain Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity Disciplined Approach to Capital Allocation Maintaining safe, reliable operations is priority #1.” “Focusing on debt reduction in the near-term to return to targeted leverage levels while maintaining sufficient cash balances.”
Control direct operating expenses between $57 million and $62 million per quarter | A supporting condition in CVR Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is direct operating expenses <= $62 million per quarter. | Intact | operating expenses exceed $65 million per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain crude utilization near 97% and ammonia plant utilization near 103% | CVR Energy runs its plants at high utilization, about 97% crude and 103% ammonia. | Intact | utilization falls below 90% for either crude or ammonia plants | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Allocation Strategy Prioritize Sustaining Capital Investments Return Cash to Investors When Appropriate Pursue Accretive Acquisition and Investment Opportunities Maintain Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity Disciplined Approach to Capital Allocation Maintaining safe, reliable operations is priority #1.” ““Looking ahead, we intend to carry our philosophy of Continuous Improvement into all aspects of our businesses, seeking to maintain safe, reliable operations while driving meaningful growth and shareholder returns.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain adjusted refining margin capture near 46% | A primary condition in CVR Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=46% adjusted margin capture. | Improving | margin capture falls below 40% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Strategic Priorities: ➢ Constant focus on the safe, reliable operations of our facilities ➢ Evaluate commercial optimization opportunities to improve margin capture in the Petroleum Segment ➢ Actively pursue opportunities to expand our asset footprint ➢ Maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation Petroleum Segment Overview 3 Competitively Positioned Mid-Con Refineries ▪ Nameplate crude oil capacity of 206,500 bpd across two refineries with an average complexity rating of 10.8.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $4.55 · observed estimates
$7.45B → $7.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $7,449,805,540 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.80 | $7,545,651,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.63 | $7,545,600,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.63 | $7,545,600,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.80 | $7,545,651,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.63 | $7,545,600,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.63 | $7,545,600,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.85 | $7,547,251,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.85 | $7,547,251,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.91 | $7,592,251,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.91 | $7,592,251,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.91 | $7,666,200,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.66 | $7,547,200,133 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.19 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.60 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.60 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.60 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.60 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.60 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.73 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.86 | $7,668,352,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.51 | $7,666,419,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.59 | $7,560,619,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.59 | $7,560,619,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $7,750,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $7,750,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $7,750,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $7,750,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $7,750,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.24 | $7,810,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.24 | $7,810,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.24 | $7,810,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.24 | $7,810,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.24 | $7,810,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.55 | $7,824,566,000 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.