CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.50+2.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-23
President and CEO — Mark A. Pytosh: Mr. Pytosh stepped down from his positions as President and CEO of the Company and CVR GP, with a successor named.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends signal management's view on cash flow and financial health.
Watch forManagement announces an increase in the cash dividend for Q3 2026.
Also watch forManagement will lower or stop the cash dividend for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The turnaround is key for increasing production capacity by 5%. This could boost future earnings.
Supportive ifThe East Dubuque fertilizer plant will begin its changes in August 2026.
Worry ifThe turnaround is delayed or not executed as planned.
Why it matters: Keeping direct operating expenses between $57MM and $62MM shows CVR Energy can control costs. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifDirect operating expenses reported for Q2 2026 are within the guidance range of $57MM to $62MM.
Worry ifDirect operating expenses for Q2 2026 are above the guidance of $57MM to $62MM.
Why it matters: A higher refining margin means more money in the Petroleum Segment. This helps growth.
Supportive ifRefining margin per barrel is over $12.43. This shows strong margin capture.
Worry ifRefining margin per barrel is below $9.94. This suggests margin capture problems.
Why it matters: Stable leaders can affect how the company operates and its plans.
Supportive ifThere will be no more executive changes or big management shifts for six months.
Worry ifAnother major executive will leave in the next six months.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CVR Energy can improve its financial condition. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a profit or a smaller loss compared to Q1 results.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a larger loss than in Q1.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well CVR Energy is managing costs and revenues.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.50.
Also watch forEPS falls below $0.20.
Why it matters: A drop in ammonia plant use may show problems. This can affect fertilizer production.
Worry ifAmmonia plant use is at or above 99%. This shows strong performance.
Less concerning ifAmmonia plant use is below 99%. This may mean there are operational problems.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifCVR Energy announces a cash dividend for Q3 2026. This keeps returns for shareholders.
Worry ifNo cash dividend is announced for Q3 2026. This may show financial strain.
Why it matters: How management spends money is important for future growth. Changes may show financial health.
Watch forManagement keeps or lowers spending plans for 2026.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend more than $240 million. This is a big increase.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses can hurt profits. Keeping them controlled is key for financial health.
Worry ifDirect operating expenses go up more than 5% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifDirect operating expenses stay the same or go down from last quarter.
Why it matters: Maintaining CAPEX within the $60MM to $75MM range shows CVR Energy's focus on disciplined spending. This is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported for Q2 2026 is within the guidance range of $60MM to $75MM.
Worry ifCAPEX reported for Q2 2026 exceeds the guidance range of $60MM to $75MM.
Why it matters: Net income in Q3 would show ongoing recovery and strong operations after Q2's good results.
Supportive ifCVR Energy reports a net income for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCVR Energy reports a net loss for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it shows the energy sector is gaining momentum. This can benefit CVR Energy.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifEnergy sector revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better refining margins will increase profits. This will help investor confidence.
Supportive ifRefining margin capture rises to over $5 for each throughput barrel.
Worry ifRefining margin capture falls below $4 per throughput barrel.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $584 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,821 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.