CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$39.84-7.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 3, 2026, CVR Energy, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Barclays Capital Inc. and Jefferies LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named on Schedule I thereto (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 10,515,248 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“ Common Stock ”), t…
Why it matters: Higher prices helped lift fertilizer income, while some sales volumes fell year over year. The next report will show whether that mix holds.
Watch forAmmonia and UAN prices stay at or above $791 and $392 per ton, and sales volumes rise year over year.
Also watch forAmmonia prices fall below $593 and UAN prices fall below $317. Or reported sales volumes keep falling from a year earlier.
Why it matters: The next report tests whether stronger refining margins and high use rates continue. Lower results could weaken the recent improvement.
Watch forQ3 adjusted refining margin is at least $12.43 per barrel, with crude use near or above 98%.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted refining margin falls below $9.95 per barrel, or crude use falls below 90%.
Why it matters: The planned work aims to add about 5% to ammonia capacity. Completion would show progress on a named growth project.
Supportive ifCVR says the turnaround and ammonia expansion are done. East Dubuque capacity rises by about 5%.
Worry ifCVR reports the work was delayed, not completed, or will add less than about 5% capacity.
Why it matters: The CEO named growth and lower debt as priorities. Specific funded plans would show action; rising debt would point the other way.
Watch forCVR names a funded growth project and reports lower total debt than the $1.8 billion reported at June 30, 2026.
Also watch forCVR reports higher total debt, or gives no named growth project in its next report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $644 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,417 loss on $10,000 · 44.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.