Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Curtiss-Wright (CW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$433.87-4.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
17.15 → 17.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches about $15.1 in FY26 | The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to about $15.1 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $13.0 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.1 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20264.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP measures, and other companies may define such measures differently.” “Reconciliations of “Reported” GAAP amounts to “Adjusted” non-GAAP amounts are furnished within this release.” Diluted EPS was $4.07 in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CW is an execution-led industrial growth business, with management targeting higher revenue, mid-teens earnings growth, and wider margins. The multi-year view is intact, though earnings quality is fragile, management is volatile, and overall risk has recently moved to elevated.
CW is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are ahead of the evidence in the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is still tagged as justified, with low fragility rather than a view that the full set of risks is reflected in expectations.
Near-term results have been neutral overall, while management has raised 2026 sales and earnings guidance and margin progress has been on track. A possible guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk, especially given a history of misses; recent CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management continuing to deliver its sales, earnings, and margin priorities through leadership changes. Near term, a guidance cut could weaken the case, while continued strength from industrial bellwethers such as SPCX, GE, and RTX could support the sector backdrop; weakness from those companies could remove that support.
CW’s long-term thesis remains intact, but its expensive valuation, fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and leadership changes make continued execution important over the next one to three years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow above $580 million in FY26 | Free cash flow rises above $580 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $466 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $151.732M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $580 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026151,732,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 19% in FY26 | A primary condition in Curtiss-Wright's published investment case. The stated target is >= 19.0%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 18.5% in FY26 | Operating margin: 19.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 19.0%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202619.338685 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $3.74 billion in FY26 | Curtiss-Wright grows revenue about 9% a year, driven by defense and nuclear markets. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.42 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $924.008M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.74 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026924,008,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “A live webcast of the call and the accompanying financial presentation, as well as a webcast replay of the call, will be made available by visiting the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.curtisswright.com .” “Reconciliations of “Reported” GAAP amounts to “Adjusted” non-GAAP amounts are furnished within this release.” Revenue was $924.008 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.09 → $17.22 · observed estimates
$4.09B → $4.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $17.11 | $4,086,457,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $17.14 | $4,109,028,610 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $17.14 | $4,109,028,610 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $17.15 | $4,111,771,460 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $17.15 | $4,111,771,460 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $17.09 | $4,086,150,031 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $17.11 | $4,108,788,521 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $17.13 | $4,110,052,456 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $17.13 | $4,109,957,739 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $17.14 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $17.15 | $4,113,911,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $17.15 | $4,113,623,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $17.15 | $4,113,623,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $17.15 | $4,113,323,827 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $17.19 | $4,113,306,553 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $17.23 | $4,113,306,553 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $17.22 | $4,112,116,553 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.22 | $4,112,438,317 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.