Curtiss-Wright (CW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$433.87-4.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CW — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-06
CFO — K. Christopher Farkas: The CFO is retiring with a planned transition and an interim successor has been appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Gary Ogilby is interim CFO while the board searches for a permanent successor. A named successor would mark progress in the handoff.
Watch forCW announces a permanent CFO before the end of 2026 and sets a clear handoff plan.
Also watch forCW has not named a permanent CFO by year-end, or reports a delay in the handoff.
Why it matters: CW raised its cash flow outlook and reported 116% cash flow conversion in Q2. Q3 results will test the full-year target.
Supportive ifAfter Q3, CW keeps or raises its $585–$605 million full-year free cash flow range and keeps conversion above 105%.
Worry ifCW cuts the full-year free cash flow range below $585 million or lowers its conversion goal below 105%.
Why it matters: CW said it expects about $460 million of repurchases in 2026. The year-end update can show whether the plan was carried out.
Watch forCW reports about $460 million in share repurchases for 2026, near its stated plan.
Also watch forCW reports materially less than $460 million in 2026 repurchases or delays the plan.
Why it matters: CW reported record demand for defense electronics, but Q2 segment sales fell 3%. More sales would show that orders are moving through.
Supportive ifDefense Electronics sales grow year over year in Q3, after falling 3% in Q2.
Worry ifDefense Electronics sales fall year over year again in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $426 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,527 loss on $10,000 · 45.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CW raised its 2026 margin range after Q2 margin reached 19.4%. A high Q3 margin would support that outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted operating margin is at least 19.1%. Full-year guidance stays at 19.1%–19.3% or rises.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating margin falls below 19.1%, or CW cuts the full-year range below 19.1%.
Why it matters: The August outlook raised the sales growth range. Q3 results will test whether growth stays on track.
Supportive ifOn November 4, CW reports results and keeps full-year sales growth guidance at 8%–9% or raises it.
Worry ifCW cuts full-year sales growth guidance below 8%.