Curtiss-Wright (CW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$566.75-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CW — government funding
Dated 2026-05-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreemen t On May 19, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) evidencing a new syndicated $1 billion revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”). The Credit Agreement was entered into by and among the Company and certain of its subsidiaries, as borrowers, the lenders party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent for the lenders. The obligations under the Credit Faci…
Why it matters: New orders above $1.1 billion would signal ongoing strong demand in the defense and commercial sectors.
Supportive ifQ3 new orders reported above $1.1 billion.
Worry ifQ3 new orders reported below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on net income growth will show if the company is making more money.
Supportive ifManagement reports net income growth above 10% in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement reports net income growth below 0% in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is on track for revenue and EPS growth.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher EPS means the company makes more money. This helps investors feel good.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported above $4.07 for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $4.07 for Q3.
Why it matters: An operating margin above 19.1% shows strong cost control. It also shows good efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating margin was over 19.1% for Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 19.1% for Q3.
Why it matters: The buyback shows management believes in the company's value and future growth.
Supportive ifThe company finishes a $100 million share buyback as planned.
Worry ifCompany fails to execute the $100 million share buyback program.
Why it matters: If sales growth is below 7%, it shows revenue is slowing down. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 sales growth reported below 7%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 sales growth reported above 8%.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the industrial sector.
Supportive ifCurtiss-Wright will report revenue growth over 8% each year in the next quarters.
Worry ifCurtiss-Wright will report revenue growth under 5% each year in the next quarters.
Why it matters: If free cash flow is below $580 million, it raises worries about cash generation. This affects how money is spent.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $580 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $600 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows good cost management and revenue growth. It shows management's focus on raising net income.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 15% year-over-year in Q2.
Worry ifNet income growth drops below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Using the credit facility for buying shows the company is growing fast.
Supportive ifThere is news of an acquisition paid for by the new $1 billion credit facility.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced within the next six months.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows how much money the company expects to make. A cut could mean problems in operations.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 EPS guidance reported below $14.90.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 EPS guidance maintained at $14.90 or higher.
Why it matters: This range confirms management's confidence in achieving mid-teens EPS growth for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported between $15.10 and $15.40.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $15.10.
Why it matters: Details on the credit facility will show how the company plans to use the funds. This impacts future growth and capital allocation.
Watch forThe company shares details about projects funded by the new credit line.
Also watch forNo clear plans or projects are announced for the use of the credit facility.
Why it matters: Changes can affect money management and growth plans. Stability is key for strategy.
Watch forNo changes to the terms of the $1 billion revolving credit facility.
Also watch forThe terms of the revolving credit facility are changing. An announcement has been made.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase revenue. It means the company’s growth plan is working.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 12% year-over-year, better than Q1's 13.4%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports growth initiatives and shareholder returns. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $160 million for Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $160 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 8% would indicate a slowdown against the raised guidance. This could signal weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth reported below 8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth reported above 8%.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS growth below 14% would challenge the company's target for mid-teens growth. This could raise concerns about profitability.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth reported below 14%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth reported above 14%.
Why it matters: Free cash flow below $585 million would indicate weaker cash generation than expected. This could impact future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $585 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $605 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback plan show that management believes in the company's value. It also shows their confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks. This is on top of the current $260 million plan.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the planned share repurchase program.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $370 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,917 loss on $10,000 · 29.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.